ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½

Business

    • A dip in inflation may not be enough to stop the BoC from raising rates next month

    Share
    OTTAWA -

    Forecasters are expecting the Bank of Canada to move ahead with another interest rate hike in July, even as they expect the annual inflation rate to slow significantly.

    Statistics Canada is set to release its consumer price index report for May on Wednesday, providing the most up-to-date inflation reading ahead of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision on July 12.

    "I think this release is probably going to be a fairly optimistic one for inflation, in the sense that we are expecting the inflation rate to go down below four per cent," said James Orlando, TD's director of economics.

    On the food inflation front, Orlando is also hopeful that price increases may be slowing more meaningfully.

    "We haven't had the same deceleration of food prices as the U.S. has had on a monthly basis recently. And so that's something that you're kind of hoping that's gonna start coming through in Canada as well," he said.

    In April, grocery prices were 9.7 per cent higher than a year ago.

    Inflation ticked slightly higher to 4.4 per cent in April, marking the first increase since last summer. The report sparked concern at the Bank of Canada that progress on inflation was slowing, despite its aggressive interest rate hikes since March 2022.

    But next week's release is expected to show inflation once again on the decline, with BMO forecasting Canada's inflation rate fell a full percentage point to 3.4 per cent in May.

    "A good chunk of that (decline) is just because prices rose so much a year ago," said Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO.

    Economists have been widely expecting the annual inflation rate to fall sharply this year because of base year effects -- which refers to the impact of price movements from a year ago on the calculation of the year-over-year inflation rate.

    Reitzes said inflation falling closer to three per cent will likely make Canadians feel better about the inflation outlook and potentially help with future inflation expectations, but it doesn't fully quash the Bank of Canada's worries.

    Most forecasters, including Orlando and Reitzes, are expecting the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates again in July, doubling down on its rate hike in June. That's because they don't expect the Bank of Canada's main concerns -- core inflation and a strong economy -- to be alleviated.

    "The reason why the Bank of Canada decided to raise rates at aggressively in its last meeting, and why they're probably going to raise rates again in July is because the Canadian consumer keeps spending," he said.

    Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada announced a quarter of a percentage point rate hike that brought its key rate to 4.75 per cent -- the highest it's been since 2001.

    The decision to raise interest rates again, despite announcing a pause earlier in the year, was prompted by a string of hot economic data that raised concerns at the central bank that the journey back to two per cent inflation make take longer than previously expected.

    Economic growth in the first three months of the year was higher than anticipated, driven in part by strong consumer spending which was up 5.8 per cent.

    "As Canadians keep spending, those price pressures keep increasing," Orlando said. "That's why I think they're probably going to raise in July."

    The Bank of Canada has also been closely monitoring core inflation, which strips out volatility from the measure. Reitzes expects core inflation actually accelerated last month, serving as more bad news to the central bank.

    The Bank of Canada has not given financial markets any hints on which way it is swaying. Instead, it's indicated that it plans to base its July decision on income data.

    But with only one month of data to work with, Reitzes says it will take weak results on all fronts to convince the Bank of Canada to not raise rates.

    "Unless you get uniformly weak data, it looks pretty likely that they'll have to push rates higher once again," he said.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 23, 2023

    CTVNews.ca ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½

    Police have arrested an 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in an incident that was captured on video.

    Since she was a young girl growing up in Vancouver, Ginny Lam says her mom Yat Hei Law made it very clear she favoured her son William, because he was her male heir.

    Advocates have identified the woman who died this week after being shot by police in Surrey, B.C., as a South American refugee who was raising a young daughter.

    Three men were injured after trying to subdue a man armed with a knife during afternoon prayers at a Montreal-area mosque Friday afternoon.

    A 15-year-old boy who was the subject of an emergency alert in New Brunswick has been arrested.

    The search for a missing six-year-old boy in Shamattawa is continuing Friday as RCMP hope recent tips can help lead to a happy conclusion.

    Provincial police investigating the death of a cat that was allegedly set on fire in Orillia earlier this week released surveillance video of a person of interest in the case.

    Canada

    • Advocates have identified the woman who died this week after being shot by police in Surrey, B.C., as a South American refugee who was raising a young daughter.

    • Three men were injured after trying to subdue a man armed with a knife during afternoon prayers at a Montreal-area mosque Friday afternoon.

    • The RCMP is seeking the dismissal of three officers who have been suspended from the Coquitlam detachment since June 2021 over allegations of racist, sexist and homophobic comments made in a group chat.

    • Police have arrested an 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in an incident that was captured on video.

    • Provincial police investigating the death of a cat that was allegedly set on fire in Orillia earlier this week released surveillance video of a person of interest in the case.

    • The search for a missing six-year-old boy in Shamattawa is continuing Friday as RCMP hope recent tips can help lead to a happy conclusion.

    World

    Politics

    Health

    • A Nova Scotia woman has applied for a medically assisted death, saying after years of battling to receive out-of-country surgery for an illness that causes 'indescribable' pain, she struggles to maintain the will to live.

    Sci-Tech

    Entertainment

    • Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.

    • It was the last show for longtime children's TV star Ron (Buck Shot) Barge Friday as hundreds of family, friends and fans attended a public memorial in Calgary.

    Business

    Lifestyle

    • When Bernard Morissette got a call from Loto-Quebec on Sept. 18 and was asked if he was sitting down, he had no idea what was coming his way.

    • An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.

    Sports

    • The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have won five in a row. The Edmonton Elks have won five of their last six games. They are the two hottest teams in the West. When they meet Saturday at Commonwealth Stadium, something has to give.

    • Agreement in principle has been reached to build a new NHL arena at LeBreton Flats has been reached between the Ottawa Senators and the National Capital Commission (NCC), the two sides announced Friday.

    • F1 star Max Verstappen punished over bad word

      Formula One points leader Max Verstappen was ordered to 'accomplish some work of public interest' after uttering an inappropriate word Thursday at the news conference ahead of the Singapore Grand Prix.

    Autos

    Local Spotlight

    Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.

    An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.

    They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.

    A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.

    Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.

    The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.

    The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.

    It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.

    A Good Samaritan in New Brunswick has replaced a man's stolen bottle cart so he can continue to collect cans and bottles in his Moncton neighbourhood.

    • The RCMP is seeking the dismissal of three officers who have been suspended from the Coquitlam detachment since June 2021 over allegations of racist, sexist and homophobic comments made in a group chat.

    • Advocates have identified the woman who died this week after being shot by police in Surrey, B.C., as a South American refugee who was raising a young daughter.

    • On the day he spoke to one of his largest audiences to date, the leader of the BC Conservatives made an exceptionally misleading statement around a well-publicized funding model for political parties that’s been in place since 2018.

    • Police have arrested an 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in an incident that was captured on video.

    • The parents of a teenager who died after allegedly consuming the poisonous products of a Mississauga man are now suing him, as well as several doctors involved in her care.

    • One person was rushed to the hospital with life-threatening injuries after a multi-vehicle collision in Milton, Ont. on Friday night.

    • The man charged with fatally stabbing lifelong Banff resident Ethan Enns-Goneau in 2022 has been convicted of second-degree murder.

    • Environment Canada issued a frost advisory for Calgary late Friday afternoon.

    • It was the last show for longtime children's TV star Ron (Buck Shot) Barge Friday as hundreds of family, friends and fans attended a public memorial in Calgary.

    • Agreement in principle has been reached to build a new NHL arena at LeBreton Flats has been reached between the Ottawa Senators and the National Capital Commission (NCC), the two sides announced Friday.

    • For years, the commute to Ottawa's west end was one of the biggest complaints for attending fans. But those who live in Kanata and in the immediate LeBreton area say the move would be a big change their respective neighbourhoods.

    • Ottawa police are investigating a shooting downtown Friday afternoon.

    • Three men were injured after trying to subdue a man armed with a knife during afternoon prayers at a Montreal-area mosque Friday afternoon.

    • When Bernard Morissette got a call from Loto-Quebec on Sept. 18 and was asked if he was sitting down, he had no idea what was coming his way.

    • A man who asserted his right to work in French has won his case before the Tribunal, invoking the new provisions of the province's French-language law (Bill 96) to that effect.

    • The Fairmont Jasper Park Lodge announced Friday it is now accepting reservations from guests for accommodations beginning Oct. 1.

    • Two Edmonton Police Service officers have been criminally charged in connection with an assault.

    • There's a friendship in the Edmonton Oilers crease between Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard.

    • A 15-year-old boy who was the subject of an emergency alert in New Brunswick has been arrested.

    • Halifax Regional Police warned the public of a series of high-value thefts targeting retail stores Friday.

    • Air travel is back in full swing at the Halifax Stanfield International Airport.

    • The search for a missing six-year-old boy in Shamattawa is continuing Friday as RCMP hope recent tips can help lead to a happy conclusion.

    • A plane approaches the grass runway at Harv’s Air School south of Steinbach. Nothing is getting in the way of a clear, smooth landing, but owner Harv Penner worries, that could soon change.

    • The University of Manitoba's College of Dentistry is dealing with some unexpected consequences from the federal government's new Canadian Dental Care Plan

    • Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.

    • Regina police are responding to a collision involving a motorcycle on Friday evening.

    • Five Regina schools were placed into lockdown or secure the building mode following a report of a weapons investigation at Miller High School on Friday.

    • Protests were held in front of Kitchener City Hall on Friday, both for and against LGBTQ2S+ inclusive education and queer rights in schools.

    • The provincial government is considering new rules to restrict a municipality’s ability to install new bike lanes if it means traffic lanes would be removed.

    • A new scam is being reported in communities across the country.

    • Hospital beds in hallways, supply shortages in the neonatal intensive care unit, and operating rooms being put on hold are some of the concerns nurses are voicing, according to the Saskatchewan Union of Nurses (SUN).

    • The Saskatchewan RCMP major crimes unit is investigating after a 29-year-old man died in hospital.

    • A garage fire in Saskatoon’s Willows neighbourhood on Friday narrowly missed igniting an attached home, according to the fire department.

    • Emergency crews in northern Ontario found the bodies of four people inside a home where a fire broke out Thursday night.

    • Police have arrested an 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in an incident that was captured on video.

    • A Brampton driver, 27, was charged this week when northern Ontario police stopped the SUV he was driving on Highway 17 after a reported shooting and found more than $100,000 in cash.

    • A man is in hospital with life threatening injuries following a collision between a motorcycle and a vehicle on Friday afternoon.

    • NEW

      NEW

      Under intense cross-examination from Crown Attorney Jennifer Moser, the embattled former Mayor of Woodstock stuck to his story denying that he ever did anything inappropriate to his female accuser.

    • Two men from Barrie have been charged after a deadly shooting at a park in Keswick on Wednesday.

    • Provincial police investigating the death of a cat that was allegedly set on fire in Orillia earlier this week released surveillance video of a person of interest in the case.

    • A jury has found a Barrie man guilty of second-degree murder for the stabbing death of a man at a Banff bar two years ago.

    • The Special Investigations Unit (SIU) is searching for the occupants of a vehicle caught on security cameras during a fatal police-involved shooting on Goyeau Street.

    • Windsor police say a 25-year-old mother has been charged with the drowning death of her 5-year-old child in the family’s backyard pool.

    • The federal government is investing $18.4 million dollars into the region.

    • A home has been transformed for the benefit of a B.C. neighbourhood, by a man who was transformed by the caring of his community.

    • When the federal government announced all open net fish farms on the British Columbia coast need to be out of the water by 2029, it also promised to produce a draft transition plan by the end of July. It missed that target by seven weeks.

    • New Democrat Leader David Eby has launched his British Columbia election campaign a day early, making the key battle ground of Surrey his first stop.

    • A pair of runaway pigs are in the custody of an animal sanctuary in the Okanagan after evading police and volunteers for hours earlier this week.

    • The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.

    • Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls – including one that gave birth to 10 puppies – from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.

    • After a summer of preparation, the Lethbridge Hurricanes are ready to open the 2024-25 season.

    • As a new semester is underway, Lethbridge Polytechnic and the University of Lethbridge say the number of students on campus is on the rise.

    • A Lethbridge resident is facing charges after police seized drugs and weapons at a traffic stop for bicycle equipment violations.

    • A 26-year-old driver from Surrey, B.C., has been charged with three counts of criminal negligence causing death and bodily harm in a crash that killed two youths in northern Ontario last year.

    • Ontario Provincial Police say three suspects from southern Ontario have been charged and drugs worth $300,000 have been seized following a traffic stop Sept. 16.

    • A Brampton driver, 27, was charged this week when northern Ontario police stopped the SUV he was driving on Highway 17 after a reported shooting and found more than $100,000 in cash.

    N.L.

    Shopping Trends

    The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at CTV News. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop. Read about us.

    Stay Connected
    Follow CTV News