The Bank of Canada will likely need to keep interest rates at or above 4 per cent for most of 2023 to cool an overheated economy and tame high inflation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report.
The central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate currently stands at a nearly 15-year high of 4.25 per cent after a 50 basis point hike announced on Wednesday.
The IMF, in its annual review of Canada's economy released late Thursday, said "the key immediate priority is to bring inflation down without triggering a recession," and that it welcomed the Bank of Canada's "decisive policy tightening."
The bank has raised rates at a record pace of 400 basis points in nine months to fight inflation that is far above its target. Money markets expect the policy rate to peak at 4.36 per cent in June and end 2023 at about 4.10 per cent.
Inflation has been edging down after surging to a four-decade high in June, but is still more than three times the central bank's 2 per cent target.
The IMF said inflation should continue declining and return to the 2 per cent target by end-2024, while economic growth was set to slow to 3.3 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent next year.
Slowing growth should also push unemployment to rise moderately and reach the pre-pandemic level of around 6 per cent by next year, IMF added.
The projections are largely in line with the Bank of Canada's forecast of growth declining to just under 1 per cent in 2023 and inflation returning to 2 per cent in 2024.
"Important risks, however, surround the baseline forecast, and shocks could easily push the economy into a mild recession," the IMF said.
(Reporting by Ismail Shakil in Ottawa; Editing by Mark Potter)
Software company Mustimuhw Information, which develops medical records systems built on a foundation of Indigenous traditions and values, is allowing health providers to capture data informed by cultural practices.
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The province's public security minister said he was "shocked" Thursday amid reports that a body believed to be that of a 14-year-old boy was found this week near a Hells Angels hideout near Quebec City.
An Ontario man says it is 'unfair' to pay a $1,500 insurance surcharge because his four-year-old SUV is at a higher risk of being stolen.
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Lawmakers are scrambling to ensure that the U.S. Secret Service has enough money and resources to keep the nation's presidential candidates safe amid repeated threats of violence. It's unclear, though, how much they can do with only weeks before the election, or if additional dollars would make an immediate difference.
A federal law enforcement agency confirmed it's opened an investigation into Robert F. Kennedy Jr. after he allegedly cut off the head of a dead whale and took it home two decades ago.
The mayor of a French town making headlines for the trial of dozens of men accused of rapes that occurred there over almost a decade has apologized for comments that appeared to downplay the case.
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tapped Treasury Board President Anita Anand to take on additional duties as Canada's minister of transport on Thursday.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh got into a heated exchange in the House of Commons on Thursday, just minutes after Singh announced his party would not be supporting the Conservatives' first non-confidence motion against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government.
The head of Via Rail repeatedly told MPs a train delay over the Labour Day long weekend was an isolated incident, despite a similar event two years ago.
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Ontario’s Minister of Sport, Neil Lumsden, will donate his brain to research.
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NASA scientists have successfully replicated spider-like shapes found on the surface of Mars in a laboratory setting for the first time.
Lawyers representing the producers of 'Russians at War' say they may pursue legal action against Ontario's public broadcaster for pulling support for the controversial documentary amid outcry from the Ukrainian community and some Canadian politicians.
Viewers of Jeopardy got a chance to test their knowledge of trivia about B.C.'s biggest city Wednesday night.
British actress Florence Pugh has revealed that shaving her head for her latest movie role was a 'really bizarre' experience that sent her body 'into a bit of trauma.'
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A Lethbridge couple got a good reminder as to why you should keep your vehicle doors locked at all times.
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A 16-year-old biennial event aimed at fostering business in the country's eastern Arctic and northern regions has been cancelled indefinitely as a dispute unfolds between Inuit in Canada and a Labrador group claiming to share their heritage.
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