Two principal economists painted very different pictures Thursday of what the global economy will look like in the coming years.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told an audience at Georgetown University on Thursday that the IMF is once again lowering its projections for global economic growth in 2023, projecting world economic growth lower by US$4 trillion through 2026.
"Things are more likely to get worse before it gets better," she said, adding that the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February has dramatically changed the IMF's outlook on the economy. "The risks of recession are rising," she said, calling the current economic environment a "period of historic fragility."
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, on the other side of town at the Center for Global Development, focused on how the U.S. and its allies could contribute to making longer-term investments to the global economy.
She called for ambitious policy solutions and didn't use the word "recession" once. But despite Yellen's more measured view, she said "the global economy faces significant uncertainty."
The war in Ukraine has driven up food and energy prices globally -- in some places exponentially -- with Russia, a key global energy and fertilizer supplier, sharply escalating the conflict and exposing the vulnerabilities to the global food and energy supply.
Additionally, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation and worsening climate conditions are also impacting world economies and exacerbating other crises, like high debt levels held by lower-income countries.
Georgieva said the IMF estimates that countries making up one-third of the world economy will see at least two consecutive quarters of economic contraction this or next year and added that the institution downgraded its global growth projections already three times. It now expects 3.2% for 2022 and now 2.9% for 2023.
The bleak IMF projections come as central banks around the world raise interest rates in hopes of taming rising inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve has been the most aggressive in using interest rate hikes as an inflation-cooling tool, and central banks from Asia to England have begun to raise rates this week.
Georgieva said "tightening monetary policy too much and too fast -- and doing so in a synchronized manner across countries -- could push many economies into prolonged recession." Maurice Obstfeld, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, recently wrote that too much tightening by the Federal Reserve could "drive the world economy into an unnecessarily harsh contraction."
Yellen agreed Thursday that "macroeconomic tightening in advanced countries can have international spillovers."
The two economists' speeches come ahead of annual meetings next week of the 190-nation IMF and its sister-lending agency, the World Bank, which intend to address the multitude of risks to the global economy.
Georgieva said the updated World Economic Outlook of the fund set to be released next week downgrades growth figures for next year.
Many countries are already seeing major impacts of the invasion of Ukraine on their economies, and the IMF's grim projections are in line with other forecasts for declines in growth.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last week said the global economy is set to lose $2.8 trillion in output in 2023 because of the war.
The projections come after the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries decided Wednesday to sharply cut production to support sagging oil prices in a move that could deal the struggling global economy another blow and raise politically sensitive pump prices for U.S. drivers just ahead of key national elections in November.
Yellen said since many developing countries are facing all challenges simultaneously, from debt to hunger to exploding costs, "this is no time for us to retreat."
"We need ambition in updating our vision for development financing and delivery. And we need ambition in meeting our global challenges," she said.
The Israeli military targeted a top Hezbollah figure in a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs on Friday, two security sources in Lebanon said, sharply escalating the year-long conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed group.
Smoke is rising over Lebanon’s capital of Beirut Friday after Israel’s military struck southern suburbs – a dramatic escalation in a year-long period of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
Since she was a young girl growing up in Vancouver, Ginny Lam says her mom Yat Hei Law made it very clear she favoured her son William, because he was her male heir.
The province's public security minister said he was "shocked" Thursday amid reports that a body believed to be that of a 14-year-old boy was found this week near a Hells Angels hideout near Quebec City.
An Ontario man says it is 'unfair' to pay a $1,500 insurance surcharge because his four-year-old SUV is at a higher risk of being stolen.
Following the MIND diet for 10 years produced a small but significant decrease in the risk of developing thinking, concentration and memory problems, a new study found.
The Montreal couple from Mexico and their three children facing deportation have received a temporary residence permit.
A 20-year-old man and his co-conspirator have been charged with conspiracy to steal and launder over US$230 million in cryptocurrency, and federal authorities said the arrests are connected to an FBI raid of a mansion in Miami.
The federal firearm buyback program has cost taxpayers nearly $67.2 million since it was announced in 2020, but it still hasn't collected a single gun.
Since she was a young girl growing up in Vancouver, Ginny Lam says her mom Yat Hei Law made it very clear she favoured her son William, because he was her male heir.
The Montreal couple from Mexico and their three children facing deportation have received a temporary residence permit.
Emergency crews in northern Ontario found the bodies of four people inside a home where a fire broke out Thursday night.
In the middle of the small crowd — near the tents, the lineup of kids awaiting face painting, the snack table — stood a jubilant Chiara Padovani. 'When I say 'tenant, you say 'power,'' she commanded to several dozen tenants, who chanted back with gusto. What looked like a summer block party in front of two north-end Toronto apartment buildings last month was a celebration of what renters who withheld payments for months called a 'huge victory.'
For the last seven-and-half months, Toronto resident Heather McArthur has been living out what she describes as her 'worst nightmare.' On Feb. 7, her then three-year-old son Jacob along with his father Loc Phu 'Jay' Le departed for what was supposed to be a week-long visit to Vietnam to celebrate the Lunar New Year with family, McArthur says.
Five bison are dead at Elk Island National Park east of Edmonton following an early Thursday morning collision.
Lawmakers are scrambling to ensure that the U.S. Secret Service has enough money and resources to keep the nation's presidential candidates safe amid repeated threats of violence. It's unclear, though, how much they can do with only weeks before the election, or if additional dollars would make an immediate difference.
The mayor of a French town making headlines for the trial of dozens of men accused of rapes that occurred there over almost a decade has apologized for comments that appeared to downplay the case.
A federal law enforcement agency confirmed it's opened an investigation into Robert F. Kennedy Jr. after he allegedly cut off the head of a dead whale and took it home two decades ago.
Smoke is rising over Lebanon’s capital of Beirut Friday after Israel’s military struck southern suburbs – a dramatic escalation in a year-long period of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
Lawyers in Britain representing dozens of alleged victims of Mohamed Al Fayed, the former boss of Harrods, said Friday their clients assert that he was a “monster†who raped and sexually abused young women.
A 20-year-old man and his co-conspirator have been charged with conspiracy to steal and launder over US$230 million in cryptocurrency, and federal authorities said the arrests are connected to an FBI raid of a mansion in Miami.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tapped Treasury Board President Anita Anand to take on additional duties as Canada's minister of transport on Thursday.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh got into a heated exchange in the House of Commons on Thursday, just minutes after Singh announced his party would not be supporting the Conservatives' first non-confidence motion against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government.
The head of Via Rail repeatedly told MPs a train delay over the Labour Day long weekend was an isolated incident, despite a similar event two years ago.
The Nunavut government says it will provide immunization against respiratory syncytial virus to all infants in the territory this fall, a policy change that one pediatric infectious diseases specialist has been advocating for decades.
Ontario’s Minister of Sport, Neil Lumsden, will donate his brain to research.
Software company Mustimuhw Information, which develops medical records systems built on a foundation of Indigenous traditions and values, is allowing health providers to capture data informed by cultural practices.
Lebanese authorities on Thursday banned walkie-talkies and pagers from being taken on flights from Beirut airport, the National News Agency reported, after thousands of such devices exploded during a deadly attack on Hezbollah this week.
If something looks too good to be true, it might be. That's the message from Saskatchewan horticulturists after customers have come into their stores hoping to buy purple apple trees this month.
NASA scientists have successfully replicated spider-like shapes found on the surface of Mars in a laboratory setting for the first time.
Lawyers representing the producers of 'Russians at War' say they may pursue legal action against Ontario's public broadcaster for pulling support for the controversial documentary amid outcry from the Ukrainian community and some Canadian politicians.
Viewers of Jeopardy got a chance to test their knowledge of trivia about B.C.'s biggest city Wednesday night.
British actress Florence Pugh has revealed that shaving her head for her latest movie role was a 'really bizarre' experience that sent her body 'into a bit of trauma.'
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says there is a lot of uncertainty around how artificial intelligence could affect the economy moving forward, including the labour market and price growth.
A case involving stolen funds from a Saskatchewan business being used to purchase cryptocurrency will be heading back to the courts, thanks to a new decision by Saskatchewan's Court of Appeal.
Self-service kiosks at McDonald's and other fast-food chains have loomed as job killers since they were first rolled out 25 years ago. But nobody predicted what actually happened.
A huge king penguin chick named Pesto, who weighs as much as both his parents combined, has become a social media celebrity and a star attraction at an Australian aquarium.
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
Trips can make lifelong memories when they go off without a hitch, but cancellations and rescheduled events are common because of artist illnesses, poor ticket sales, security threats, unruly weather and natural disasters.
Shohei Ohtani became the first major league player to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a season, with the Los Angeles Dodgers star going deep twice to reach the half-century mark and swiping two bags to get to 51 against the Miami Marlins on Thursday.
Vancouver Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko says he's been working his way back from a rare lower-body muscle injury since being sidelined in last season's playoffs.
Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette returned to the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a right middle finger fracture.
An Ontario man says it is 'unfair' to pay a $1,500 insurance surcharge because his four-year-old SUV is at a higher risk of being stolen.
Video of a brazen daylight auto theft which shows a suspect running over a victim in a stolen luxury SUV has been released by police west of Toronto.
The plant was expected to produce batteries for a million electric vehicles a year. Once up and running, it was supposed to create hundreds of permanent jobs in a small southeastern Ontario municipality. But two years later, spending on the construction of the Umicore plant has been delayed in what the company calls a "significant worsening of the EV market context."
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.
A Good Samaritan in New Brunswick has replaced a man's stolen bottle cart so he can continue to collect cans and bottles in his Moncton neighbourhood.
David Krumholtz, known for roles like Bernard the Elf in The Santa Clause and physicist Isidor Rabi in Oppenheimer, has spent the latter part of his summer filming horror flick Altar in Winnipeg. He says Winnipeg is the most movie-savvy town he's ever been in.
Edmontonians can count themselves lucky to ever see one tiger salamander, let alone the thousands one local woman says recently descended on her childhood home.
Getting a bed at one of British Columbia's drug detoxification facilities is like winning the lottery, the vice-president on the Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council says.
B.C.'s police watchdog is investigating the death of a woman who was shot by the RCMP after allegedly barricading herself in a room with a toddler early Thursday morning.
The Israeli military targeted a top Hezbollah figure in a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs on Friday, two security sources in Lebanon said, sharply escalating the year-long conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed group.
For the last seven-and-half months, Toronto resident Heather McArthur has been living out what she describes as her 'worst nightmare.' On Feb. 7, her then three-year-old son Jacob along with his father Loc Phu 'Jay' Le departed for what was supposed to be a week-long visit to Vietnam to celebrate the Lunar New Year with family, McArthur says.
An Ontario man says it is 'unfair' to pay a $1,500 insurance surcharge because his four-year-old SUV is at a higher risk of being stolen.
Ontario police say they have arrested four members of the Hells Angels Motorcycle Club (MC) and seized a number of firearms after an alleged assault and robbery in Hamilton in July.
Defence counsel for accused murderer John-Christopher Arrizza argues he was in an “altered state of mind†due to days of drug and alcohol use, sleep deprivation and not eating, when he fatally stabbed a man at a Banff nightclub in 2022.
Injury prevention experts are urging Calgarians to ride carefully as e-scooter crashes land hundreds of people in the hospital.
Friday will be cool and wet with intermittent showers likely through most of the day.
CTV News has learned “significant news†is coming Friday regarding ongoing discussions to build a new downtown arena for the Ottawa Senators.
A man has been taken to hospital in life-threatening condition following a stabbing incident that happened on Baseline Road in the early hours of Friday morning, according to the Ottawa Paramedic Service.
Police say a man, 30, who was taken to hospital in critical condition after being shot Thursday night has died.
The Montreal couple from Mexico and their three children facing deportation have received a temporary residence permit.
The province's public security minister said he was "shocked" Thursday amid reports that a body believed to be that of a 14-year-old boy was found this week near a Hells Angels hideout near Quebec City.
Premier François Legault's approval rating continued to rise this summer, according to the Angus Reid Institute. After reaching a low at the end of 2023, his support rose by three percentage points over the summer to 39 per cent.
A mother and daughter say they woke up to flames encroaching on their third-floor apartment near Commonwealth Stadium early Friday morning.
The big weather story today won't really be rain, it'll be the cooler and breezier conditions.
Five bison are dead at Elk Island National Park east of Edmonton following an early Thursday morning collision.
Gas prices increased in all three Maritime provinces for the first time in more than a month.
A Nova Scotia woman has applied for a medically assisted death, saying after years of battling to receive out-of-country surgery for an illness that causes "indescribable" pain, she struggles to maintain the will to live.
A section of Herring Cove Road in the Spryfield area of Halifax is closed to traffic in both directions following a single-vehicle collision Friday morning.
The Winnipeg Police Service (WPS) has made an arrest following a fire that claimed the lives of two people.
Shamattawa RCMP are searching for a missing six-year-old boy who hasn’t been seen since Wednesday morning.
A Winnipeg pet rescue is putting out a warning to dog owners across the city about a possible parvovirus in the province.
Driving into the tunnels of Nutrien's Rocanville mine, the largest potash mine in the world by production volume, feels like driving down a lonely highway in the middle of the night.
Regina Fire crews were sent to a duplex fire on Dewdney Avenue early Friday morning.
The second-degree murder trial of Thomas Hamp is being adjourned until December so an expert witness central to the trial can testify.
Amber and Adam Brueckner have a pool-shaped hole in their backyard – and their wallets.
The missing family that was last seen in Kitchener, Ont. on Sept. 1 has been found safe, according to police.
Police are trying to identify a man who approached a woman and child in Wellesley.
The second-degree murder trial of Thomas Hamp is being adjourned until December so an expert witness central to the trial can testify.
A gym teacher at a private Christian school in Saskatoon has been charged. Terra MacEwan, 44, is charged with assault with a weapon. A Saskatoon mother who spoke with CTV News says her autistic son was MacEwan's victim.
Driving into the tunnels of Nutrien's Rocanville mine, the largest potash mine in the world by production volume, feels like driving down a lonely highway in the middle of the night.
Emergency crews in northern Ontario found the bodies of four people inside a home where a fire broke out Thursday night.
As northern Ontario gets ready to welcome autumn this weekend, it’s still feeling a lot like summer as provincial forest fire crews continue to battle blazes.
An Ontario man says it is 'unfair' to pay a $1,500 insurance surcharge because his four-year-old SUV is at a higher risk of being stolen.
Police say just before 7:00 p.m. four teens entered a business in the 1000 block of Adelaide Street North.
Police were focusing their attention on the northeast corner of Richmond and Horton, with members of the emergency response unit taking up positions at the scene.
An Elgin County community is expected to double in size as plans for multiple residential developments loom. The Township of Southwold expects shovels in the ground as early as 2025.
Two men from Barrie have been charged after a deadly shooting at a park in Keswick on Wednesday.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Ontario Provincial Police executed a search warrant in Walkerton.
On Thursday, just after 9:30 a.m., a man was found and taken to police headquarters, where he was released with conditions and a future court date.
Standing up, speaking out, and showing solidarity — survivors and supporters gathered in the core to take back the night in Windsor. The city is just one of a growing list of communities that have declared intimate partner violence (IPV) an epidemic.
The Windsor Police Service (WPS) has seized over $56,000 in drugs and have arrested one suspect.
In a rare move, the Greater Victoria School District Board of Education has been slapped with a ministerial order from the province requiring it to update a student safety plan – drawing concern around political posturing leading up to an election.
The Union of B.C. Municipalities is asking the provincial government to make transit free for teenagers.
To appreciate why Mimi Vandermolen is so pleased to notice one particular vehicle she’s walking past, you need to know that seeing this many cars in one place would have been unimaginable when she was growing-up in the post-war Netherlands.
A pair of runaway pigs are in the custody of an animal sanctuary in the Okanagan after evading police and volunteers for hours earlier this week.
The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.
Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls – including one that gave birth to 10 puppies – from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.
A Vulcan, Alta., man has been charged with a Lethbridge woman's murder after her body was found in the Oyen area.
A Lethbridge couple got a good reminder as to why you should keep your vehicle doors locked at all times.
Lethbridge residents who live near the police range can expect to hear plenty of shots fired Wednesday and Thursday.
A new community health profile in the Algoma District shows the area is significantly below provincial averages in a number of health metrics.
North Bay Police Service says one person has died following an industrial accident at the Ontario Northland Transportation Commission Rail Yard on Tuesday.
Three northern Ontario residents are charged with drug trafficking after the vehicle they were in got stuck along a bush road off Highway 17 on Monday.
Newfoundland and Labrador's chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
A 16-year-old biennial event aimed at fostering business in the country's eastern Arctic and northern regions has been cancelled indefinitely as a dispute unfolds between Inuit in Canada and a Labrador group claiming to share their heritage.
Jim Lester’s farm hopped on the cow-cuddling trend in early August, and his time slots have been pretty well sold out ever since.
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