This is what Canada will look like in 20 years – are we ready for an aging population?
Share
The rapid growth expected among Canada’s senior population in the coming years is one of the “most significant demographic trends” in the country’s history, says demographer Doug Norris. While this growth may present some challenges for younger generations, industry experts say it will also offer opportunities to pave the way for a better future.
Residents aged 65 and older are part of the fastest-growing age group in Canada today, said Norris, who is chief demographer at Environics Analytics, a marketing and analytical services company owned by Bell Canada. The company estimates that as of 2023, there are about 7.6 million people aged 65 and older in Canada. Many of these Canadians are part of the baby boomer generation, which includes those born from 1946 to 1964.
Based on recent immigration trends, data from a special analysis conducted by Environics Analytics for CTVNews.ca shows the senior population is expected to exceed 11 million people by 2043.
“Those numbers are really now at extremely high historical levels,” Norris told CTVNews.ca in a video interview. “(Baby boomers) are having a major impact on our society and our country.”
AT A GLANCE:
About one in four Canadians will be 65 years of age or older by 2043, according to an analysis performed by Environics Analytics for CTV News
Canada is , a 43 per cent increase compared to 2018, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada
Higher concentrations of seniors live in rural and suburban areas, particularly across Atlantic Canada and in Ontario and British Columbia. Of all the provinces and territories, Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest proportion of seniors in Canada, with 24.6 per cent of the population aged 65 and older as of 2023
According to industry experts, sectors such as health care, employment and housing are largely unprepared for an aging population, without the proper systems in place or equipment in hand to address the needs of seniors today. While this may present challenges in the years to come, opportunities will also arise for younger generations to fill the gaps left by an aging population, health, labour and housing experts say.
Estimates shared by Environics Analytics in April show that as of 2023, seniors make up 19.3 per cent of Canada’s total population. This age group outnumbers children under the age of 15, which make up 15.5 per cent of the population. In contrast, in 1971, eight per cent of Canada’s total population was aged 65 and older, while 30 per cent was under 15 years of age.
Contributing to Canada’s aging population is an increasing life expectancy. Statistics Canada data from 2022 shows the country is , a 43 per cent increase compared to 2018.
Additionally, Canada’s fertility rate is lower than the global average of 2.3 births per woman, according to . Since 1980, Canada’s fertility rate has remained at an average of 1.6 births per woman. If this rate stays consistent, the number of seniors in Canada will remain relatively high in the years to come, reaching about 25 per cent of the population by 2043, according to Environics Analytics.
A CLOSER LOOK AT CANADA’S SENIOR POPULATION
Canada’s seniors are not a monolith, with variations in average income, living arrangements and more. This can be seen through the PRIZM segmentation system developed by Environics Analytics. With 67 unique profiles, Environics says this system offers a snapshot of the demographic data, lifestyles and values held by Canadians today, including those aged 65 and older.
SILVER FLATS
This is the oldest segment, largely made up of mature suburban singles and couples.
38.1 per cent of Canadians who fit this profile are aged 65 and older
Key neighbourhoods include those in mid-sized cities such as Sarnia and North Bay in Ontario
The oldest PRIZM segment, Silver Flats mostly includes mature suburban singles and couples.
SCENIC RETIREMENT
This PRIZM profile comprises a significant number of seniors, most of which are middle-income earners who live in suburban areas.
35.5 per cent of Canadians who fit this profile are seniors
Most of these seniors live in smaller cities and towns located outside of urban hubs, such as Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ont., and Courtenay, B.C.
The Scenic Retirement PRIZM profile includes many seniors who are middle-income earners living in suburban areas.
BACKCOUNTRY BOOMERS
A significant portion of Canadian seniors also live in rural areas. The Backcountry Boomer profile consists of couples and singles in rural areas who are lower- and middle-income earners.
Nearly 32 per cent of Canadians who fit this profile are aged 65 and older
Most of these seniors live in Atlantic provinces such as Nova Scotia
Backcountry Boomers include couples and singles in rural areas who are lower- and middle-income earners.
Among the provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador has the oldest population, with 24.6 per cent of residents aged 65 or older. The province with the lowest percentage of seniors is Alberta, at 15.2 per cent. Census metropolitan areas with a total population of more than 100,000 seniors include Trois-Rivières and Saguenay in Quebec, as well as Peterborough, Ont., and Nanaimo, B.C.
The typical dwelling type held by PRIZM profiles with a high concentration of seniors is a low-rise apartment or single-detached home, according to Environics Analytics. Additionally, residents are more likely to own their home than rent. The cultural diversity index among the profiles mentioned above also remains low.
Although most Canadian seniors are non-immigrants based on data from 2021, those who immigrated to Canada make up 29.9 per cent of the senior population, with most having moved before 1980. Most seniors who would consider themselves visible minorities identify as Chinese, South Asian or Black. The majority of seniors in Canada practise either Christianity, Islam or Sikhism.
For those aged 65 and older, the median total income is about $33,200, according to Statistics Canada data from 2020. Sources of income mainly include government transfers and private retirement income, although employment income still accounts for nearly one-fifth of a senior’s total income.
HEALTH CARE: ‘INCREASING DEMAND’ FOR SERVICES
Some of the most significant challenges brought about by an aging population will arise in Canada’s health-care sector, said Chad Leaver, director of health at the Conference Board of Canada, a national research organization. Looking at current health-care systems, Leaver said the country is not adequately prepared for an aging population.
Adding to the problem is the fact that many of these health-care workers, such as physicians, are getting older themselves and preparing to leave the workforce. shows approximately nine per cent of physicians were 65 years of age and older in 2000, while seven per cent were between the ages of 60 and 64. By 2022, 15 per cent of physicians in Canada were aged 65 and older, and nearly 10 per cent were 60 to 64 years of age.
It’s also important to consider that patients are becoming older, too, said Arthur Sweetman, a professor at McMaster University in Hamilton who specializes in health and labour economics. An aging population is also resulting in “increasing demand” for health-care services, he said.
This rise in demand for physicians as well as caregivers is raising questions about who will fill these roles in the years to come, Norris said.
The answer may involve Canada’s younger generations, said Leaver. The rise in an aging population could serve as a chance for those entering the workforce to fill existing gaps in the health-care sector, one of which involves better tracking of a patient’s health status over time, something Leaver said is currently lacking across the country.
WORKFORCE: ‘IMBALANCE’ AS MORE WORKERS RETIRE
Beyond its impact on the health-care sector, a growing senior population has larger implications for Canada’s labour market and economy, Norris said. The Generation Z cohort has not been able to keep up with the large number of seniors who have been retiring over the last few years, he said, a trend that is expected to continue as more Canadians retire in the years to come.
Data from Statistics Canada shows that as of April 2023, about 4.5 million Canadians aged 15 to 24 were considered of working age. Meanwhile, at the same point in time, .
“The challenge we're now living through is having to deal with that imbalance between the numbers,” Norris said. “So we have … a slowdown in our workforce, and we see that today in terms of labour shortages.”
Businesses of all sizes and in all industries have complained about labour shortages for months, with experts saying Canada’s aging workforce is to blame. With fewer workers, this could lead to slower economic growth, Norris said. As a result, existing employees could be forced to work more hours, on average, to fill the gaps, which may impact their quality of life.
In order to prepare for future labour shortages, different sectors could consider more opportunities to hire younger candidates, Norris said, which might also allow them to move into higher-paying jobs. This phenomenon has already been seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, with some young candidates moving out of , as well as retail trade, Norris said.
“Those are low-paying jobs and it wasn't that young people sort of left the workforce during the pandemic,” he said. “They had other opportunities and moved to higher-paying jobs in some way.”
HOUSING: AGE-FRIENDLY COMMUNITIES
Most Canadian seniors live at homes with their spouse, according to Statistics Canada census data from 2021. While about one in four seniors lives alone, this tends to be more common among women aged 65 and older than men. Additionally, data shows that living alone increases with age. This is particularly the case for women, due to the difference in death rates between both genders, Norris said. Data from Statistics Canada as of 2020 shows the average life expectancy for is .
A large proportion of seniors aged 85 and older live in collective dwellings, which include nursing homes and seniors’ residences. Many seniors also prefer to live in the communities they were brought up in, Norris said.
Despite this desire to somewhat maintain the status quo, the deterioration of health conditions that comes with aging will often force seniors to change their living arrangements. This can include efforts to improve accessibility within their existing home or to move to a residence that can offer appropriate care, Norris said.
Not enough is currently being done to ensure seniors are able to accomplish either of these things, said Mark Rosenberg, a geography professor at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., and a Canada Research Chair in development studies. To make sure the housing needs of an aging population are met, more money should be offered to seniors looking to renovate their homes through grants or additional benefits, Rosenberg said.
While the desire to age in place may make some young Canadians amid housing supply constraints, researchers are also calling for the creation of alternative forms of housing for seniors beyond one’s own home or long-term care residences.
Mary Ann Murphy, an associate professor of sociology at the University of British Columbia, points to , where she lives, as an example of a community that can benefit older Canadians. This type of housing involves self-contained units in an apartment-style building where residents have access to a housekeeper and share meals together. These homes are meant for those who might not need complex medical care, but are looking for support with chores and other responsibilities.
This kind of alternative can help seniors maintain a sense of autonomy while securing the support they need, without requiring a long-term care home, said Murphy. In addition to possibly freeing up existing residential properties, this gap in the market can serve as yet another opportunity for younger Canadians to get involved, particularly those looking to invest in real estate development, Murphy said.
CHALLENGES ARE ‘MULTI-JURISDICTIONAL’: EXPERT
Although there is still time before the senior population surges ahead of 2043, more must be done now to prepare for an aging population, Norris said. The demographer is hoping to see more intersectional co-operation between all levels of government to accomplish this, with provincial and territorial governments taking the lead on health-care initiatives and the development of age-friendly communities.
“From a demographer’s point of view, we could 40 years ago anticipate where we are today, those numbers were there,” Norris said. “The challenges faced are complex and multi-jurisdictional in many ways, and so we need various levels of government to work together to address the needs (of seniors).”
CTV News is a division of Bell Media, which is part of BCE Inc.
With files from The Canadian Press
Edited by Mary Nersessian, graphics produced by Jesse Tahirali
The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) may face some hurdles in collecting the money loaned through COVID-19 pandemic relief programs, like the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), according to a tax lawyer.
What seemed to be a minor passport issue turned into a major problem for a New Brunswick man who was denied a boarding pass from Air Canada.
U.S. President Joe Biden, fighting to save his endangered reelection effort Friday, repeatedly rejected taking an independent medical evaluation that would show voters he is up for serving another term in office while blaming his disastrous debate performance on a “bad episode” and saying there were “no indications of any serious condition."
Deep inside Earth is a solid metal ball that rotates independently of our spinning planet, like a top whirling around inside a bigger top, shrouded in mystery.
Hogweed is harmful to humans and, experts say, the invasive species has become a growing problem in southern Ontario.
An eight-year-old boy from Los Angeles had his vacation to Montreal include a dramatic moment when a creature swimming underwater bit him causing a bloody scene at Jean Dore beach.
The Opposition Conservatives vowed Friday that a future Pierre Poilievre-led government would remove the man the Liberals just appointed to lead the Canadian Human Rights Commission.
France's heartache in penalty shootouts is over. So is Cristiano Ronaldo's last-ever European Championship.
The cleanup and remediation continues in Abbotsford, B.C., after firefighting foam spilled into a creek, killing fish and other aquatic life.
Mounties in Kelowna are warning the public after a local resident fell victim to an "elaborate" fraud last week.
This weekend's Money in the Bank will be a full-circle moment for Chelsea Green.
John Tzannis says he is lucky he wasn’t more seriously injured after a 14-year-old driver rear-ended him on Highway 401 in Mississauga, sending his work van spinning into a concrete barrier early Friday morning.
Peel police have made five arrests in connection with a series of “violent extortion incidents” that led to the formation of a dedicated task force this winter.
Two Halton Regional Police officers shot and killed a 29-year-old man after finding him stabbing another man with a knife in the living room of an Oakville home in March, the province’s police watchdog has found.
A woman in her 90s was killed in a collision with a CTrain in northeast Calgary on Friday morning.
Paladin security workers at the Calgary International Airport are rallying against their employer after they say the company refused to provide them with mandated bathroom breaks and access to water.
A Calgary preschool closed due to a suspected case of E. coli is set to reopen next week, as it says the case was a false alarm.
CTV News Ottawa’s chief news anchor Graham Richardson signed off for his last newscast Friday night.
Court documents are detailing for the first time the series of events that led to Hawkesbury doctor Brian Nadler being charged with first-degree murder in the deaths of four of his patients—charges he was acquitted of this week.
An Ottawa woman, who has survived cancer and has overcome addiction, has won $70 million with Lotto Max.
Montreal police say a suspect has been arrested after a man was stabbed with an "edged weapon" in the city's Village neighbourhood on Friday.
Mattel has partnered up with Grazy, a Quebec foodtech company that has created a special ice cream flavour to celebrate the 65th anniversary of the iconic doll Barbie.
An eight-year-old boy from Los Angeles had his vacation to Montreal include a dramatic moment when a creature swimming underwater bit him causing a bloody scene at Jean Dore beach.
The province and Legal Aid Alberta have agreed to extend their recently expired agreement by two months.
An investigation is underway after a child drowned in Wetaskiwin on Tuesday.
An Edmonton basketball coach has been charged with sexual assault, among other charges, after a teenage girl he was coaching reported that he'd assaulted her.
The Roman Catholic Church has been ordered to pay settlements totalling $104 million to 292 survivors of historical abuse in Newfoundland and Labrador, including those at the now infamous Mount Cashel orphanage in St. John's.
What seemed to be a minor passport issue turned into a major problem for a New Brunswick man who was denied a boarding pass from Air Canada.
A 24-year-old man from Timberlea, N.S., is wanted of a provincewide arrest warrant.
A nurse at Manitoba’s largest hospital is calling for better working conditions and a salary that can keep up with the cost of living, as thousands of nurses employed by Shared Health prepare to vote on a new contract.
The constant barrage of rain this year has left many Winnipeggers having to pump water out of their basements, including on Thursday when 42mm of rain hit the city in an hour.
One person was taken to hospital in critical condition after a serious collision on Friday.
A White City, Sask. family is raising awareness for youth mental health following their son’s death last month.
It has been 20 years since the disappearance of Tamra Keepness but the community continues to keep hope alive.
The Moose Jaw Police Service (MJPS) is warning children to stop playing doorbell pranks, as they could lead to serious consequences.
Locally-owned alcohol businesses are making adjustments to attract more customers while LCBO workers across the province are on strike.
An arrest has been made in the suspicious death of a 40-year-old woman in Brantford.
Hogweed is harmful to humans and, experts say, the invasive species has become a growing problem in southern Ontario.
Saskatoon police say the man accused of causing a crash that killed one woman and injured three others last month, did not have a valid driver’s license.
Greg Fertuck will spend life behind bars with no chance of parole until he is 90 years old, a judge ruled on Thursday at Saskatoon's Court of King's Bench.
For years, Highway 123 leading up to the northern village of Cumberland House has been notorious for being one of the worst highways in Saskatchewan.
Ontario Provincial Police are investigating after a pile of dead lobster was found on the shoulder of Highway 17 this week in northern Ontario.
An eight-year-old boy from Los Angeles had his vacation to Montreal include a dramatic moment when a creature swimming underwater bit him causing a bloody scene at Jean Dore beach.
An independent report into the 2022 Rogers outage says the company lacked several protections and redundancies that could have either prevented the outage or ended it sooner.
One person has died and another is injured after police in Woodstock, Ont. responded to multiple calls of "gunshots in the area." Around 7:30 p.m. on Thursday, police responded to Champlain Avenue between Athlone Avenue and Frontenac Crescent.
Some local producers of beer, wine, and liquor are taking a wait-and-see approach to the LCBO strike.
Norfolk County OPP are investigating an armed robbery that took place Friday morning around 7:20 a.m.
An early-morning fire closed the Cookstown Foodland grocery store on Friday.
Provincial police say a retired officer and an off-duty firefighter jumped into action to rescue a woman who had fallen into raging rapids in Minden.
WITH VIDEO
WITH VIDEO |
A dump truck caught fire on Highway 400 near the Essa Road off-ramp.
For the first time in the history of the Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO), unionized staff are on strike — including about 525 workers from Windsor-Essex and Chatham-Kent. In Windsor, strikers took to three picket lines at 7:00 a.m. Friday.
Firefighters in Amherstburg put out a wheat field fire earlier this week in the midst of the crop's harvest.
A pool of mosquitos collected on Wednesday has tested positive for West Nile Virus. Chatham-Kent (CK) Public Health said the pool came from a trap in Wheatley. It’s the first positive pool identified in Chatham-Kent this season.
British Columbia's power provider is planning to spend more than $3 billion on capital projects to upgrade and expand the electricity grid on Vancouver Island.
This weekend's Money in the Bank will be a full-circle moment for Chelsea Green.
To appreciate how Charlotte Friend ended-up painting unexpectedly, we need to go back to where she began raising her daughter Becca optimistically.
Mounties in Kelowna are warning the public after a local resident fell victim to an "elaborate" fraud last week.
Mounties are urging the public to be vigilant following a suspected gang shooting in B.C.'s southern Interior that left a 40-year-old man injured this week.
British Columbia residents are being told to brace for a coming heat wave that could send temperatures into the high 30s and beyond, with the government reminding people to check in on their neighbours.
Nearly 2,000 athletes will compete in 20 events over four days during the 2024 Southern Alberta Sumer Games. After months of planning, organizers are thrilled to welcome families from all over southern Alberta to Coaldale, Alta.
One of two men accused of conspiring to kill Mounties at the border blockade at Coutts, Alta., characterized the protest as a last stand and told his mother there “will be a war” if police moved in.
With the recent moisture and cooler temperatures, fire bans and restrictions in the Lethbridge area are no longer in effect.
A 62-year-old man from Elliot Lake, Ont., is facing multiple charges – including assault with a weapon – following an altercation with provincial police earlier this week.
Two Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., residents are facing impaired driving charges in two separate incidents on the 4th of July.
A 78-year-old from Elliot Lake, Ont., has been charged following an incident July 2 second at a local hardware store.
The Roman Catholic Church has been ordered to pay settlements totalling $104 million to 292 survivors of historical abuse in Newfoundland and Labrador, including those at the now infamous Mount Cashel orphanage in St. John's.
Opposition parties in Newfoundland and Labrador say they’re growing frustrated at the decision by health officials to move freezers of unclaimed human remains into an underground hospital parking garage.
Newfoundland and Labrador's Liberal premier is once again opposing a decision made by the federal Liberals — this time about the reopening of the province's commercial northern cod fishery.
Adam finds out how a giant tortoise walking along a sidewalk is inspiring a woman visiting from Australia.
A wrestling fan from Guelph, Ont. thought he was down for the count after winning tickets to a “once-in-a-lifetime” WWE event in Toronto.
Lacey may look like just another pet chicken on Emily Carrington’s B.C. property. But she has a title her coop mates don’t: Guinness World Record holder.
Philip Kim, who competes as "B-Boy Phil Wizard," is set to make Canadian sports history this summer as the country's first-ever Olympic breaking athlete.
A new documentary filmed in Nova Scotia by marine biologist and veterinarian Dr. Chris Harvey Clark explores the increased number of white shark observations in Canadian waters.
A never-before-lived-in mansion in Whistler is on the market for $17.9 million – with the listing describing it as a 'steal for the international buyer' due to the current exchange rate, which puts the price in U.S. dollars at $13.1 million.
Irish singer Niall Horan had to ditch his car and walk to Scotiabank Arena where his concert was being held last weekend because the traffic was 'too bad' downtown.
A rave at the Ontario Science Centre was the place where Greg LeBlanc says his relationship first began with his husband Mark in 1997.
The Labour Party’s landslide win in the United Kingdom election Thursday is renewing hope that trade talks between Ottawa and London could re-start according to Canada’s High Commissioner in the U.K.
Former foreign affairs minister Marc Garneau says Canada has lost its standing in the world under the tenure of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom he criticizes as an ill-prepared leader who prioritizes politics and makes big pronouncements without any follow-through.
The Opposition Conservatives vowed Friday that a future Pierre Poilievre-led government would remove the man the Liberals just appointed to lead the Canadian Human Rights Commission.
Plague, one of the deadliest bacterial infections in human history, caused an estimated 50 million deaths in Europe during the Middle Ages when it was known as the Black Death.
On two separate occasions and without prompting, Tracy Polewczuk says she was informed that she would be eligible for medical assistance in dying (MAID) even though she didn't ask for it.
Deep inside Earth is a solid metal ball that rotates independently of our spinning planet, like a top whirling around inside a bigger top, shrouded in mystery.
Bulgarian archeologists stumbled upon unexpected treasure this week during a dig in an ancient Roman sewer - a well-preserved, marble statue depicting the Greek god Hermes.
Kendrick Lamar turned the visual of his Drake diss track into a family affair. The song is part of what has become a very public feud between Lamar and Drake.
The British power couple got hitched in 1999, fusing the worlds of fashion and football forever. While their marriage has endured 25 years later, the pair have come to regret some of the minor details of their big day.
Several North American department stores are joining forces under a deal that will see Hudson's Bay Co. buy Neiman Marcus and spin it out into a larger business along with some of its other prestige retailers.
Whether it’s from dangerous currents, seemingly placid lakes or swimming pools, the drowning statistics from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are shocking.
Billionaire heir Anant Ambani is set to marry his longtime girlfriend Radhika Merchant later this month, in a lavish ceremony widely described as the country's wedding of the year.
Substitute Mikel Merino headed Spain into the semifinals of the European Championship as they snatched a 2-1 win over Germany in extra time on Friday.
Jessica Campbell is making history in the National Hockey League (NHL) by recently being hired as the first female full-time coach for the Seattle Krakens.
CDK Global said 'substantially all' of the nearly 15,000 car dealerships that use its software across North America are back online to its core management system, almost two weeks since a cyber incident caused a software blackout.