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Fall forecast: What to expect across Canada, according to experts

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It might not feel like it for Canadians who have enjoyed extended summer weather throughout September, but fall is coming – sort of.

Experts at the Weather Network, AccuWeather and Environment Canada agree that people across most of the country can expect more of the same conditions well into October: higher-than-average temperatures and lower-than-average precipitation.

“School might be in but, boy, the weather is not fall-like at all,†David Phillips, senior climatologist for Environment and Climate Change Canada, told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on Wednesday.

“You would think it was the dog days of summer. You breathe the air and it doesn’t feel like fall at all.â€

According to the Weather Network’s , unseasonably warm, dry conditions will persist for the majority of the country, with typical late-fall weather and the first dustings of snow not expected for most regions until November. By then, most regions can expect typical or slightly higher than typical temperatures, and mostly typical precipitation levels.

Some outliers include the coastal provinces of British Columbia, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, P.E.I. and Newfoundland and Labrador. In those provinces, warm water off the Pacific and Atlantic coasts could bring higher-than-average rainfalls through the second half of October and into November.

“Additionally, we will continue to keep a close eye on the tropics and the heightened risk for heavy rain from the remnants of tropical systems across southern and eastern parts of Quebec,†the forecast reads.

GOOD FOR CROPS, BAD FOR FIRES

This fall’s unusually warm, dry weather will have positive and negative implications, depending on the region.

On one hand, according to senior AccuWeather meteorologist Brett Anderson, a long, warm fall is a boost for farmers in Saskatchewan who will have more time for the harvest and dry conditions in which to finish it.

“With the drier conditions they’ve had, the harvests have been doing pretty well because they can get out into the field and do the harvest,†Anderson told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on Wednesday.

On the other hand, the Weather Network reports that for British Columbia and Alberta, “a warm and dry start to the season means that the heightened risk for wildfires will continue later into fall than normal.â€

Additionally, Anderson said, while parts of the Northwestern Territories and the Yukon will experience a “cold start to the fall,†much of far northern Canada will experience a milder winter than is typical, thanks to climate change.

“As we get into the winter, with climate change, the far north is warming so much more rapidly than the lower latitudes,†Anderson said. “So unless we see something striking, more than likely the upcoming winter in the far north will be warmer than normal.†

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