ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½

Climate and Environment

    • Weather's unwanted guest: Nasty La Nina keeps popping up

    FILE - The Manayunk neighbourhood in Philadelphia is flooded Thursday, Sept. 2, 2021, in the aftermath of downpours and high winds from the remnants of Hurricane Ida. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File) FILE - The Manayunk neighbourhood in Philadelphia is flooded Thursday, Sept. 2, 2021, in the aftermath of downpours and high winds from the remnants of Hurricane Ida. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)
    Share

    Something weird is up with La Nina, the natural but potent weather event linked to more drought and wildfires in the western United States and more Atlantic hurricanes. It's becoming the nation's unwanted weather guest and meteorologists said the West's megadrought won't go away until La Nina does.

    The current double-dip La Nina set a record for strength last month and is forecast to likely be around for a rare but not quite unprecedented third straight winter. And it's not just this one. Scientists are noticing that in the past 25 years the world seems to be getting more La Ninas than it used to and that is just the opposite of what their best computer model simulations say should be happening with human-caused climate change.

    "They (La Ninas) don't know when to leave," said Michelle L'Heureux, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast office for La Nina and its more famous flip side, El Nino.

    An Associated Press statistical analysis of winter La Ninas show that they used to happen about 28% of the time from 1950 to 1999, but in the past 25 winters, they've been brewing nearly half the time. There's a small chance that this effect could be random, but if the La Nina sticks around this winter, as forecast, that would push the trend over the statistically significant line, which is key in science, said L'Heureux. Her own analysis shows that La Nina-like conditions are occurring more often in the last 40 years. Other new studies are showing similar patterns.

    What's bothering many scientists is that their go-to climate simulation models that tend to get conditions right over the rest of the globe predict more El Ninos, not La Ninas, and that's causing contention in the climate community about what to believe, according to Columbia University climate scientist Richard Seager and MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.

    What Seager and other scientists said is happening is that the eastern equatorial Atlantic is not warming as fast as the western equatorial Atlantic or even the rest of the world with climate change. And it's not the amount of warming that matters but the difference between the west and east. The more the difference, the more likely a La Nina, the less the difference, the more likely an El Nino. Scientists speculate it could be related to another natural cycle, called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or it could be caused by human-caused climate change or both.

    "At this point we just don't know," L'Heureux said. "Scientists are watching and I know, are actively studying. But it's really important because of regional conditions. We need to get this right."

    La Nina is a natural and cyclical cooling of parts of the equatorial Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide, as opposed to El Nino's warming. Often leading to more Atlantic hurricanes, less rain and more wildfires in the West and agricultural losses in the middle of the country, studies have shown La Nina is more expensive to the United States than the El Nino. Together El Nino, La Nina and the neutral condition are called ENSO, which stands for El Nino Southern Oscillation, and they have one of the largest natural effects on climate, at times augmenting and other times dampening the big effects of human-caused climate change from the burning of coal, oil and gas, scientists said.

    "They really have a very, very strong" effect, said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia University's El Nino/La Nina forecasting. "So a third consecutive La Nina is not at all a welcome thing."

    He said the dangerous heat in India and Pakistan this month and in April is connected to La Nina.

    The current La Nina formed in the late summer of 2020 when the Atlantic set a record for the number of named storms. It strengthened in the winter when the West's drought worsened and in the early summer of 2021 it weakened enough that NOAA said conditions were neutral. But that pause only lasted a few months and by early fall 2021 La Nina was back, making it a double dip.

    Normally second years of La Nina tend to be weaker, but in April this La Nina surprised meteorologists by setting a record for intensity in April, which is based on sea surface temperatures, Ehsan said.

    "These are very impressive values for April," L'Heureux said. Still, because La Ninas historically weaken over summer and there are slight signs that this one may be easing a bit, there's the small but increasing chance that this La Nina could warm just enough to be considered neutral in late summer.

    La Nina has its biggest effect in the winter and that's when it is a problem for the West because it's the rainy season that is supposed to recharge areas reservoirs. But the West is in a 22-year megadrought, about the same time period of increasing La Nina frequency.

    Three factors -- ENSO, climate change and randomness -- are biggest when it comes to the drought, which is itself a huge trigger for massive wildfires, said UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain. Without climate change, La Nina and bad luck could have made the drought the worst in 300 years but with climate change it's the worst in at least 1,200 years, said UCLA climate hydrologist Park Williams.

    La Nina "is a pretty important player; it may be the dominant player," said Swain, who has a blog on Western weather. "It could be responsible for one-third, maybe one-half of the given conditions if it is pronounced enough."

    "It's much less likely that the Southwest will see at least even a partial recovery from the megadrought during La Nina," Swain said.

    La Nina "amps up your Atlantic storms" but decreases them in the Pacific, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.

    It's all about winds 6 to 7 miles (10 to 12 kilometres) above the water surface. One of the key factors in storm development is whether there is wind shear, which are changes in wind from high to low elevations. Wind shear can decapitate or tip over hurricanes, making them hard to strengthen and at times even stick around. Wind shear can also let dry air into hurricanes that chokes them.

    When there's an El Nino, there's lots of Atlantic wind shear and it's hard for hurricanes to get going. But La Nina means little wind shear in the Atlantic, making it easier for storms to intensify and do it quickly, said University of Albany hurricane researcher Kristen Corbosiero.

    "That's a really huge factor," Corbosiero said.

    "Whatever is the cause, the increasing incidence of La Ninas may be behind the increasing hurricanes," MIT's Emanuel said.

    Some areas like eastern Australia and the arid Sahel region of Africa do better with more rain during La Nina. India and Pakistan, even though they get extra spring heat, also receive more needed rain in La Ninas, Columbia's Ehsan said.

    A 1999 economic study found that drought from La Nina cost the United States agriculture between $2.2 billion to $6.5 billion, which is far more than the US$1.5 billion cost of El Nino. A neutral ENSO is best for agriculture.

    Columbia's Seager said even though there may be some chance and some natural cycles behind the changes in La Nina, because there's likely a climate change factor he thinks there will probably be more of them.

    ------

    Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP's climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

    CTVNews.ca ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½

    Three men were injured after trying to subdue a man armed with a knife during afternoon prayers at a Montreal-area mosque Friday afternoon.

    Police have arrested an 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in an incident that was captured on video.

    Since she was a young girl growing up in Vancouver, Ginny Lam says her mom Yat Hei Law made it very clear she favoured her son William, because he was her male heir.

    A 15-year-old boy who was the subject of an emergency alert in New Brunswick has been arrested.

    The search for a missing six-year-old boy in Shamattawa is continuing Friday as RCMP hope recent tips can help lead to a happy conclusion.

    Emergency crews in northern Ontario found the bodies of four people inside a home where a fire broke out Thursday night.

    Canada

    • Three men were injured after trying to subdue a man armed with a knife during afternoon prayers at a Montreal-area mosque Friday afternoon.

    • Police have arrested an 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in an incident that was captured on video.

    • The search for a missing six-year-old boy in Shamattawa is continuing Friday as RCMP hope recent tips can help lead to a happy conclusion.

    • The Métis Nation of Saskatchewan has pulled out of a national body representing Métis, citing problems with an Ontario group and throwing the future of the Métis National Council into question.

    • Provincial police investigating the death of a cat that was allegedly set on fire in Orillia earlier this week released surveillance video of a person of interest in the case.

    • The debate over sexual orientation and gender identity education in schools is heating up. Protests both for and against SOGI in the curriculum took place across the country Friday.

    World

    Politics

    Health

    • A Nova Scotia woman has applied for a medically assisted death, saying after years of battling to receive out-of-country surgery for an illness that causes 'indescribable' pain, she struggles to maintain the will to live.

    Sci-Tech

    Entertainment

    • Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.

    • It was the last show for longtime children's TV star Ron (Buck Shot) Barge Friday as hundreds of family, friends and fans attended a public memorial in Calgary.

    Business

    Lifestyle

    • When Bernard Morissette got a call from Loto-Quebec on Sept. 18 and was asked if he was sitting down, he had no idea what was coming his way.

    • An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.

    Sports

    • The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have won five in a row. The Edmonton Elks have won five of their last six games. They are the two hottest teams in the West. When they meet Saturday at Commonwealth Stadium, something has to give.

    • Agreement in principle has been reached to build a new NHL arena at LeBreton Flats has been reached between the Ottawa Senators and the National Capital Commission (NCC), the two sides announced Friday.

    • F1 star Max Verstappen punished over bad word

      Formula One points leader Max Verstappen was ordered to 'accomplish some work of public interest' after uttering an inappropriate word Thursday at the news conference ahead of the Singapore Grand Prix.

    Autos

    Local Spotlight

    Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.

    An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.

    They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.

    A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.

    Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.

    The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.

    The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.

    It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.

    A Good Samaritan in New Brunswick has replaced a man's stolen bottle cart so he can continue to collect cans and bottles in his Moncton neighbourhood.

    • Advocates have identified the woman who died this week after being shot by police in Surrey, B.C., as a South American refugee who was raising a young daughter.

    • The debate over sexual orientation and gender identity education in schools is heating up. Protests both for and against SOGI in the curriculum took place across the country Friday.

    • A fire that destroyed a historic bridge in Kamloops, B.C., is now being investigated as arson, local Mounties say.

    • Police have arrested an 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in an incident that was captured on video.

    • The parents of a teenager who died after allegedly consuming the poisonous products of a Mississauga man are now suing him, as well as several doctors involved in her care.

    • Michael Ford, Ontario's minister of citizenship and multiculturalism, says he is taking a leave of absence from cabinet to prioritize his health.

    • The man charged with fatally stabbing lifelong Banff resident Ethan Enns-Goneau in 2022 has been convicted of second-degree murder.

    • Environment Canada issued a frost advisory for Calgary late Friday afternoon.

    • Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek is urging the Alberta government to preserve pieces of the massive Green Line transit project now being dissolved.

    • Agreement in principle has been reached to build a new NHL arena at LeBreton Flats has been reached between the Ottawa Senators and the National Capital Commission (NCC), the two sides announced Friday.

    • For years, the commute to Ottawa's west end was one of the biggest complaints for attending fans. But those who live in Kanata and in the immediate LeBreton area say the move would be a big change their respective neighbourhoods.

    • Ottawa police are investigating a shooting downtown Friday afternoon.

    • Three men were injured after trying to subdue a man armed with a knife during afternoon prayers at a Montreal-area mosque Friday afternoon.

    • When Bernard Morissette got a call from Loto-Quebec on Sept. 18 and was asked if he was sitting down, he had no idea what was coming his way.

    • A man who asserted his right to work in French has won his case before the Tribunal, invoking the new provisions of the province's French-language law (Bill 96) to that effect.

    • Two Edmonton Police Service officers have been criminally charged in connection with an assault.

    • There's a friendship in the Edmonton Oilers crease between Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard.

    • A local festival featuring short films directed by Arabs and Muslims at home and from around the world aims to creatively break down stereotypes and barriers the community faces.

    • A 15-year-old boy who was the subject of an emergency alert in New Brunswick has been arrested.

    • Day two of New Brunswick’s provincial election campaign saw the Liberals and Green Party make healthcare announcements, while the Progressive Conservatives focused on a previous promise to cut taxes.

    • Relatives of a 60-year-old man who took his own life in a Nova Scotia jail after long periods of confinement in his cell have launched a lawsuit against the province.

    • The search for a missing six-year-old boy in Shamattawa is continuing Friday as RCMP hope recent tips can help lead to a happy conclusion.

    • A plane approaches the grass runway at Harv’s Air School south of Steinbach. Nothing is getting in the way of a clear, smooth landing, but owner Harv Penner worries, that could soon change.

    • The University of Manitoba's College of Dentistry is dealing with some unexpected consequences from the federal government's new Canadian Dental Care Plan

    • Five Regina schools were placed into lockdown or secure the building mode following a report of a weapons investigation at Miller High School on Friday.

    • A 21-year-old man from Codette, Sask. is facing numerous charges in connection to a fatal crash near Wapella, Sask. Wednesday night that claimed the life of a 22-year-old Alberta woman.

    • The City of Regina and provincial government have committed a combined $400,000 to Carmichael Outreach for an 80-person warming space set to open no later than Nov. 1.

    • Protests were held in front of Kitchener City Hall on Friday, both for and against LGBTQ2S+ inclusive education and queer rights in schools.

    • Levels of hydrogen sulfide gas are being monitored at Brantford Collegiate Institute after a leak in their geothermal system.

    • Police have arrested an 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in an incident that was captured on video.

    • A garage fire in Saskatoon’s Willows neighbourhood on Friday narrowly missed igniting an attached home, according to the fire department.

    • The Métis Nation of Saskatchewan has pulled out of a national body representing Métis, citing problems with an Ontario group and throwing the future of the Métis National Council into question.

    • The second-degree murder trial of Thomas Hamp is being adjourned until December so an expert witness central to the trial can testify.

    • Emergency crews in northern Ontario found the bodies of four people inside a home where a fire broke out Thursday night.

    • Police have arrested an 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in an incident that was captured on video.

    • A Brampton driver, 27, was charged this week when northern Ontario police stopped the SUV he was driving on Highway 17 after a reported shooting and found more than $100,000 in cash.

    • A man is in hospital with life threatening injuries following a collision between a motorcycle and a vehicle on Friday afternoon.

    • NEW

      NEW

      Under intense cross-examination from Crown Attorney Jennifer Moser, the embattled former Mayor of Woodstock stuck to his story denying that he ever did anything inappropriate to his female accuser.

    • Two men from Barrie have been charged after a deadly shooting at a park in Keswick on Wednesday.

    • Provincial police investigating the death of a cat that was allegedly set on fire in Orillia earlier this week released surveillance video of a person of interest in the case.

    • A 17-year-old from Markham is facing serious charges after an August 11 shooting at a party in Caledon.

    • The Special Investigations Unit (SIU) is searching for the occupants of a vehicle caught on security cameras during a fatal police-involved shooting on Goyeau Street.

    • Windsor police say a 25-year-old mother has been charged with the drowning death of her 5-year-old child in the family’s backyard pool.

    • The federal government is investing $18.4 million dollars into the region.

    • New Democrat Leader David Eby has launched his British Columbia election campaign a day early, making the key battle ground of Surrey his first stop.

    • The Old Man Lake wildfire near Sooke is the only one currently burning on Vancouver Island. It’s a region of the province that this year saw a drastic drop in blazes in the backcountry.

    • Police in Victoria, B.C. issued a warning this week about lighters that look like pistols, saying they have received 20 reports of firearms in public spaces since July 1 that turned out to be gun-shaped torches.

    • A pair of runaway pigs are in the custody of an animal sanctuary in the Okanagan after evading police and volunteers for hours earlier this week.

    • The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.

    • Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls – including one that gave birth to 10 puppies – from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.

    • After a summer of preparation, the Lethbridge Hurricanes are ready to open the 2024-25 season.

    • As a new semester is underway, Lethbridge Polytechnic and the University of Lethbridge say the number of students on campus is on the rise.

    • A Lethbridge resident is facing charges after police seized drugs and weapons at a traffic stop for bicycle equipment violations.

    • A 26-year-old driver from Surrey, B.C., has been charged with three counts of criminal negligence causing death and bodily harm in a crash that killed two youths in northern Ontario last year.

    • Ontario Provincial Police say three suspects from southern Ontario have been charged and drugs worth $300,000 have been seized following a traffic stop Sept. 16.

    • A Brampton driver, 27, was charged this week when northern Ontario police stopped the SUV he was driving on Highway 17 after a reported shooting and found more than $100,000 in cash.

    N.L.

    Shopping Trends

    The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at CTV News. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop. Read about us.

    Stay Connected
    Follow CTV News