Ahead of Sunday's 93rd Academy Awards, Associated Press Film Writers Jake Coyle and Lindsey Bahr share their predictions for a ceremony that is forging on in the midst of the pandemic.
BEST PICTURE
The Nominees: 鈥淭he Father,鈥濃淛udas and the Black Messiah,鈥濃淢ank,鈥濃淢inari,鈥濃淣omadland,鈥濃淧romising Young Woman,鈥濃淪ound of Metal,鈥濃淭he Trial of the Chicago 7.鈥
COYLE: A contemplative character study made for $5 million and populated by non-professional actors, Chloe Zhao's 鈥淣omadland鈥 is not your typical Oscar heavyweight. And yet it's overwhelming the favourite, a roundly acclaimed movie from an exciting auteur that has already ruled at the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs and, most crucially, the producers and directors' guilds. The weirdness of this unending pandemic awards season adds a drop of uncertainty to everything. But as much as I'd like to see 鈥淪ound of Metal,鈥濃淧romising Young Woman鈥 or 鈥淢inari鈥 sneak in for an upset, 鈥淣omadland鈥 is a near-lock, and an eminently worthy winner. But it's udder madness that Kelly Reichardt's lyrical 鈥淔irst Cow鈥 never contended here. And how much better would the season have been if Steve McQueen's explosive 鈥淪mall Axe鈥 film anthology (which instead will vie at the Emmys) had somehow been in the mix? Old Oscar traditions are eroding, but not quickly enough.
BAHR: You had to bring up 鈥淪mall Axe,鈥 didn't you? I would have liked to see 鈥淣ever Rarely Sometimes Always鈥 go the distance too, but I guess this year there was only room for one contemplative character study made for under $5 million - and the one about the rural Pennsylvania teens on a bleak road trip wasn't it. But it would still be 鈥淣omadland's鈥 year and that's only cause for celebration.
BEST ACTRESS
The Nominees: Carey Mulligan, 鈥淧romising Young Woman鈥; Frances McDormand, 鈥淣omadland鈥; Viola Davis, 鈥淢a Rainey's Black Bottom鈥; Vanessa Kirby, 鈥淧ieces of a Woman鈥; Andra Day, 鈥淭he United States vs. Billie Holiday.鈥
BAHR: The best actress race is perhaps the biggest wild card of the night. Viola Davis won the Screen Actors Guild Award, Andra Day won the Golden Globe and Frances McDormand won the BAFTA. It's chaos! Day still seems like a long shot and McDormand's last win still seems fresh enough that it might push voters who would've otherwise went for her Fern elsewhere. This year I'm inclined to believe that Davis will walk away with the trophy for her raw portrayal of blues singer Ma Rainey, but I can't help but think that perhaps Mulligan should win for 鈥淧romising Young Woman.鈥 As for who should've been a contender, there are so many but two of my favourites include Aubrey Plaza in the criminally underseen 鈥淏lack Bear鈥 and Han Ye-ri, who gave my favourite performance in 鈥淢inari鈥 as the long-suffering, steadfast mother Monica.
COYLE: Chaos indeed! I think this is a toss up between Davis and Mulligan, with the edge going to Davis after her SAG win. Davis has won before, for her titanic performance in 鈥淔ences.鈥 But that came (somewhat debatably) as supporting actress. And there is justice in Davis - very possibly the greatest actor alive - taking the top award, especially when you factor in the category's history. Just once before has a Black woman (Halle Berry in 2002 for 鈥淢onster's Ball鈥) won best actress. Still, the race would have been all the more interesting if it hadn't overlooked two of the year's best performances: Radha Blank (鈥淭he Forty-Year-Old Version鈥) and Carrie Coon (鈥淭he Nest鈥).
BEST ACTOR
The nominees: Riz Ahmed, 鈥淪ound of Metal鈥; Chadwick Boseman, 鈥淢a Rainey's Black Bottom鈥; Anthony Hopkins, 鈥淭he Father鈥; Gary Oldman, 鈥淢ank鈥; Steven Yeun, 鈥淢inari.鈥
COYLE: After some ho-hum years, the best actor category is really strong this time around. I loved all of these performances. Still, this award has - rightly - belonged to Boseman throughout an award season that has doubled as tribute and wake for the late 鈥淢a Rainey鈥 actor. His greatest performance was his last. Some see a chance of Hopkins (who won at the BAFTAs) pulling off an upset for his devastating portrait of a man stricken with dementia. But I don't. Expect Boseman to become the third actor to win an Oscar posthumously, following Heath Ledger (鈥淭he Dark Knight鈥) and Peter Finch (鈥淣etwork鈥). I wouldn't swap any of these nominees out, but Sacha Baron Cohen's high-wire guerilla performance in 鈥淏orat Subsequent Moviefilm鈥 is in a category by itself.
BAHR: Could you imagine if Boseman didn't win? The grit and commitment in all these performances are worth singing about, though. There were so many others that could have fit in here too, like Delroy Lindo for 鈥淒a 5 Bloods,鈥 Mads Mikkelsen for 鈥淎nother Round鈥 or, while we're bending categories, even Hugh Jackman for 鈥淏ad Education.鈥
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Maria Bakalova, 鈥淏orat Subsequent Moviefilm鈥; Glenn Close, 鈥淗illbilly Elegy鈥; Olivia Colman, 鈥淭he Father鈥; Amanda Seyfried, 鈥淢ank鈥; Yuh-Jung Youn, 鈥淢inari.鈥
BAHR: In a category where Amanda Seyfried started out seeming like a lock, it certainly seems like the tide has shifted toward Yuh-Jung Youn for her performance as the unconventional grandmother Soonja in 鈥淢inari.鈥 It's a difficult task to be both the comic relief and the heart of a film, but she pulls it off effortlessly which is why she probably will and should win (although Maria Bakalova could sweep in with a possible upset). Both women elevated their respective films and deserve all the attention they're getting. And Seyfried will absolutely get her Oscar somewhere down the line. I would have also liked to see Talia Ryder advance to this stage for 鈥淣ever Rarely Sometimes Always.鈥
COYLE: This has been a shape-shifting race but Youn is definitely in the lead. I'd like to see more love all around for 鈥淢inari,鈥 but it's kind of fitting that Lee Isaac Chung's film be celebrated through the minari-growing matriarch of the movie. Two other names that I wish were here, both for disarmingly funny, natural performances: Cristin Milioti, MVP of 鈥淧alm Springs,鈥 and Dylan Gelula of the indie college romance 鈥淪--house.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen, 鈥淭he Trial of the Chicago 7鈥; Daniel Kaluuya, 鈥淛udas and the Black Messiah鈥; Leslie Odom Jr., 鈥淥ne Night in Miami鈥; Paul Raci, 鈥淪ound of Metal鈥; LaKeith Stanfield, 鈥淛udas and the Black Messiah.鈥
COYLE: This seems certain to go to Daniel Kaluuya. For his mighty performance as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton, Kaluuya (a nominee for 鈥淕et Out鈥) has racked up wins at the SAGs, Globes and BAFTAs. A little wrinkle came when Stanfield was unexpectedly nominated here despite being campaigned for as a leading actor - and that could split some of the vote between the two 鈥淛udas and the Black Messiah鈥 stars. Stanfield, for me, is the best actor in this bunch. But this is Kaluuya's year. Stanfield will be back, as will some of the performers who missed out, like Kingsley Ben-Adir, terrific as Malcolm X in 鈥淥ne Night in Miami.鈥
BAHR: Oh, Kingsley Ben-Adir! If I'm being perfectly honest, I would have been happy if the supporting slate was simply the cast of 鈥淥ne Night in Miami,鈥 plus Kaluuya. I do think Paul Raci has a shot as the Cinderella story of awards season, but it also feels like it's time to get Kaluuya up on that stage.
DIRECTOR
The Nominees: Chloe Zhao, 鈥淣omadland鈥; Lee Isaac Chung, 鈥淢inari鈥; David Fincher, 鈥淢ank鈥; Emerald Fennell, 鈥淧romising Young Woman鈥; Thomas Vinterberg, 鈥淎nother Round.鈥
BAHR: The directing category is Chloe Zhao's to lose and I think she both will win and should win for the transcendent 鈥淣omadland,鈥 even if it's become a forgone conclusion at this point. In an awards season as endless as this one it's hard not to be skeptical of any film and filmmaker that has thus far swept most awards. But that this tiny movie has had such an ascent is something of a miracle and well deserved. The bonus is that (hopefully) we'll finally have more than one best director-winner who is a woman. That said, it would have been nice had Miranda July (鈥淜ajillionaire鈥) been among the contenders as well.
COYLE: I like imaging the Dynes of 鈥淜ajillionaire鈥 getting all dressed up and taking multiple bus transfers to the Oscars. But Zhao will win, and it should be a great moment. Not just because she'll be only the second woman to ever win the award but because she's an exceptional - and exceptionally humble - filmmaker with a lot of movies ahead of her. More often this award goes to someone who's been around a while. Pretty soon, we'll be wondering how it's possible that David Fincher - maybe the very best Hollywood director of his era - hasn't ever won.
DOCUMENTARY
The Nominees: 鈥淐ollective,鈥 鈥淐rip Camp,鈥 鈥淭he Mole Agent,鈥 鈥淢y Octopus Teacher,鈥 鈥淭ime鈥
COYLE: With increasing frequency, this is the best Oscar category, and it's the one with the most snubs. Some of the very best movies of the year - including 鈥淒ick Johnson Is Dead鈥 and 鈥淭he Truffle Hunters鈥 - didn't make it through the crowded shortlist stage. And still the films that did get nominated are sensational. Probably the only one that I wouldn't pick - 鈥淢y Octopus Teacher鈥 - is going to win. Little noticed at its debut last fall, the film's audience swelled on Netflix, turning it into an out-of-the-blue Academy Awards contender. I would cheer loudest, though, if 鈥淐rip Camp鈥 were to win. It would be a triumph for a warm-hearted film, and for the disability community.
BAHR: Even the shortlist itself was brutal, leaving out 鈥淭he Dissident鈥 and 鈥淎casa, My Home鈥 but the documentary category has long left out some of the medium's best work (hi 鈥淗oop Dreams鈥). It is odd that a late-game Netflix sensation like 鈥淢y Octopus Teacher鈥 somehow became the frontrunner, but I'm trying not to judge what people connect to this year even if I would prefer an urgent piece like 鈥淐ollective鈥 take the prize.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
The Nominees: 鈥淨uo Vadis, Aida?鈥, Bosnia and Herzegovina; 鈥淎nother Round,鈥 Denmark; 鈥淏etter Days,鈥 Hong Kong; 鈥淐ollective,鈥 Romania; 鈥淭he Man Who Sold His Skin,鈥 Tunisia.
BAHR: This category seems to be a race between Denmark's 鈥淎nother Round鈥 and Romania's 鈥淐ollective,鈥 both of which were nominated in other prominent categories (director and documentary, respectively). I think this one will veer towards 鈥淎nother Round鈥 simply because its directing nod gave it a brighter spotlight and a bigger audience and voters have a chance to honour 鈥淐ollective鈥 in another category. Another film that would have been a worthy contender here is Italy's 鈥淢artin Eden.鈥
COYLE: 鈥淎nother Round鈥 is a lock. But 鈥淨uo Vadis, Aida?鈥 is really good, too. Jasmila Zbanic dramatizes the lead-up to the 1995 massacre of Bosnian Muslim men and boys by the Bosnian Serb army in Srebrenica. Following a fictional translator (Jasna Ã聬uricic) working for the United Nations, the film devastatingly probes a human rights tragedy.
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees: 鈥淥nward,鈥 鈥淥ver the Moon,鈥 鈥淎 Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon,鈥 鈥淪oul,鈥 鈥淲olfwalkers.鈥
COYLE: Pixar, like always, seems to have this in the bag. The studio's 鈥淪oul鈥 is the clear favourite. There's so much that's wondrous in Pete Docter's film that its Oscar victory is hardly something to lament. But you couldn't find a better underdog than the plucky Irish animation studio Cartoon Saloon, which last year released their most enchanting and ambitious film yet. Tomm Moore and Ross Stewart's 鈥淲olfwalkers,鈥 the culmination of a triptych of Irish folklore, is impossibly stunning. Every hand-drawn frame is a work of art. It's the Kilkenny-based studio's fifth Oscar nomination, and it's time they won one.
BAHR: Disney and Pixar are so hard to beat. Since 2010, they've won eight times and the other two were not exactly indie underdogs (鈥淩ango鈥 and 鈥淪pider-Verse鈥). I'm rooting for 鈥淲olfwalkers鈥 but I'm betting on 鈥淪oul.鈥
