Two days after Doug Ford won the leadership of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party, Liberal Kathleen Wynne invited the media to join her at a Toronto school.
Wynne at the Ontario Liberal Party's annual meeting in Toronto, on Saturday, February 3, 2018. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young)
Such photo-ops are usually meant to announce a specific new policy, but this as an event to 鈥渢alk to families鈥 about 鈥渉ow the package of supports the government has announced is helping.鈥
It was also chance for reporters to ask Wynne about her reaction to the news that she would be facing off against one of the famous Ford brothers.
鈥淔rom my perspective, it didn鈥檛 matter who the leader of the Conservatives was going to be,鈥 Wynne said. 鈥淥ur policies are about investing in people, investing in the care of people in this province and allowing people to be able to care for one another.鈥
Wynne went on to highlight policies that the Liberals have implemented since winning a majority in 2014, including raising the minimum wage to $14 an hour with another $1 hike planned for January 1, introducing publicly-funded pharmacare for those under age 25, and providing free tuition to hundreds of thousands of college and university students.
鈥淲hat we are putting forward as a platform is very, very different than what any of the Conservatives were putting forward, which is cutting and removing supports from people,鈥 Wynne went on.
Poll after poll has shown Wynne is and a majority of Ontarians agree that, after nearly 15 years in power, it is
But that doesn鈥檛 mean voters dislike the Liberals鈥 policies.
University of Toronto political scientist Chris Cochrane and Carleton University鈥檚 Paul Thomas say that Wynne still has a path to victory in the June election -- and that鈥檚 by painting Ford as a risk to the growing public programs that many voters seem to like.
鈥淭he pitch to voters will be: 鈥榃e鈥檒l lose the progress we鈥檝e made,鈥欌 says Thomas.
鈥淚t will be much more playing to the fear of loss as compared to the potential for gain.鈥
Using the levers of power
Two days after the press conference at the elementary school, Wynne made the surprise announcement that she would prorogue the legislature, dissolving the current session and forcing a televised throne speech outlining the Liberals鈥 agenda.
Thomas says it was an 鈥渋ncredibly cynical鈥 move, but not the first time the Liberals used the 鈥渓evers of power鈥 to tout their policies.
Ontario Lt.-Governor Elizabeth Dowdeswell, left, and Kathleen Wynne before the Throne Speech, in Toronto on Monday, March 19, 2018. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young)
They have done the same thing with government advertising, he says.
in the fall that the Liberal government spent more than $58 million on advertising in 2016-17, and 30 per cent of that spending was for advertisements in which the 鈥減rimary goal鈥 appeared to be 鈥渇ostering a positive impression of the government party.鈥
Those advertisements, the report said, would not have been allowed under the rules before the Liberals changed them in 2015.
For example, the Ministry of Energy spent just over $1 million for radio ads touting the province鈥檚 cut to hydro bills. The words 鈥渨e鈥檝e heard you鈥 and 鈥渇air for everyone鈥 led the Auditor General 鈥渢o conclude that the campaign was self-congratulatory and aimed primarily at ensuring the government gets credit for its action on energy prices.鈥
It鈥檚 easy to see why the Liberals are willing to risk a backlash by spending taxpayer dollars on apparently partisan ads. taken just before the $14 minimum wage came into effect, found that 60 per cent of Ontarians support the $15 minimum wage.
The more people like things like the minimum wage, the more likely they may be to consider 鈥減lugging their nose鈥 and voting Liberal, according to Cochrane.
Cuts versus care message
The March throne speech coincided with near-daily announcements of new spending in the run-up to the budget nine days later.
There was $575 million a year for seniors pharmacare, $2.4 billion over 10 years for Toronto鈥檚 SickKids Hospital, $822 million for hospitals in 2018-19, $2.1 billion over four-years for mental health care, and over three years for children with special needs.
Kathleen Wynne applauds during a mental health funding announcement in Toronto on Wednesday March 21, 2018. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn)
The piece de resistance was the announcement that the Liberals plan to introduce universal child care for children between the ages of two-and-a-half and four-years-old, starting in 2020, at a cost of $2.2 billion over three years.
After the budget, Wynne made a speech to the Economic Club of Canada where she said the election presents voters with 鈥渢he clearest, starkest choice in the province鈥檚 history.鈥
鈥淲e can go forward with the agenda that I鈥檝e outlined, or we can go backward with Doug Ford,鈥 she told the crowd. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a choice between care and cuts.鈥
In an interview on CTV鈥檚 Your Morning, Wynne reiterated the theme of what voters might lose.
鈥淧eople are anxious about finding child care, people are anxious about finding care for their loved ones, whether they鈥檙e elderly or little kids, and people are having trouble paying for prescription medication,鈥 Wynne told host Anne-Marie Mediwake.
The Liberals鈥 budget will push the province back into deficit for the next six years, and that鈥檚 expected to push the debt per person to $26,000 by 2021,
While borrowing money year-after-year might make some voters anxious, Thomas and Cochrane say that running a deficit and promising major new spending is part of a necessary strategy to win over NDP voters, as centrist votes move toward the PCs.
鈥淚 think she鈥檚 making all the right moves, saying, 鈥榣ook, we are running to the left, we are left-leaning party, there鈥檚 nothing even centrist, really, about us,鈥欌 says Cochrane.
Wynne told Mediwake that, while spending is 鈥渙ne way of looking at it,鈥 she sees the deficits as 鈥渋nvestments in a future economy.鈥
鈥淚鈥檓 in politics to work to put supports in place for people that they need and solve problems,鈥 Wynne went on. 鈥淚 think that鈥檚 what government exists to do.鈥
Kathleen Wynne and Charles Sousa sit in the chamber at Queen鈥檚 Park after delivering the 2018 Budget, on Wednesday, March 28, 2018. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young)
It appears at least some voters agree. taken in the days after the budget found that the Liberals had gained ground after months of running a distant second or even third to the PCs.
The poll of 728 people, which had a margin of error plus or minus four per cent, found the Liberals had the support of 29 per cent of decided and leaning voters, compared to 36 per cent for the PCs and 26 per cent for the NDP.
The same poll found a majority of voters agreed with the Liberals that government should provide free daycare (53 per cent), up spending on special education (55 per cent) and give hospitals a cash injection (74 per cent).
鈥淭he increase in support for the Liberals is as drastic as it is sudden,鈥 Forum Research鈥檚 president Lorne Bozinoff noted at the time.
"If the Liberals can turn this spark of life into momentum, it could open the door just slightly toward a competitive race in June,鈥 he said.
showed what a difficult climb that could be for the Liberals, who had dropped back down to 21 per cent of leaning and decided voters, putting them in third behind the NDP at 27 per cent and the PCs at 46 per cent.
But Colin Macdonald, a Liberal adviser, told CTV News Channel just before the writ dropped that he believes Wynne can turn the numbers around by focusing on what voters could lose under Ford, whether it鈥檚 the prescription drug coverage promise or 鈥渇ree鈥 childcare.
鈥淪ome people might dismiss them as freebies,鈥 he said. 鈥淏ut (they鈥檙e) important to the people of Ontario.鈥
Also:
鈥 How Doug Ford could win the Ontario election
鈥 How Andrea Horwath could win the Ontario election
