As more of Canada’s population becomes vaccinated, several provinces are seeing that COVID-19-related hospitalizations are made up of a large number of vaccinated patients. The same trend also appears when analyzing COVID-19-related deaths.
In the , for example, 352 deaths recorded in the last 120 days or so involved those who were unvaccinated aged five or older. Meanwhile, 423 deaths reported in the same time frame were among residents with at least two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine.
While it appears as though a greater number of vaccinated people are making up COVID-19 deaths in the province, the total populations of vaccinated and unvaccinated residents must be taken into account as well, said Dr. Darren Markland, an intensive care physician based in Edmonton. With most Albertans now vaccinated, more of those being admitted to hospital and also dying are coming from that pool of people, he said.
“If you look at the raw numbers and you don't index it by vaccine rates, then it looks like vaccinated people are having worse outcomes,†he told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on Wednesday. “But really, it's because the sample size now is predominantly almost all vaccinated.â€
Out of a total of about aged five and older, about 3.3 million have been vaccinated with at least two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, while approximately 583,000 remain unvaccinated in Alberta. When taking into account the total number of fully vaccinated and unvaccinated people, the death rate associated with each group is vastly different.
Provincial data shows the death rate is about 56.5 per 100,000 people among those who are unvaccinated and five years of age or older. Meanwhile, the death rate for people who are vaccinated with two doses drops to 12.5 per 100,000 people. Those vaccinated with three doses had a death rate of 13.3 per 100,000, however, a majority of these deaths were among patients who were at least 80 years of age, a group that is especially vulnerable to COVID-19-related hospitalization and death, said Dr. David Kelvin, a professor in Dalhousie University’s department of microbiology and immunology in Halifax.
Older patients have an increased risk of both hospitalization and death as a result of COVID-19, said Kelvin. Age remains a risk factor whether or not someone is vaccinated, he said, as it often comes with a higher chance of developing comorbidities.
“The elderly normally have a difficult time in mounting the same type of immune response that young, healthy people do,†Kelvin said on Wednesday in a phone interview with CTVNews.ca. “Even though they're vaccinated, it's possible that they're still at risk because they don't have the same healthy immune system that a younger person does.â€
Only focusing on the raw numbers serves as an example of base rate fallacy, which is essentially a tendency to avoid base rates, or in this case, the total numbers of people who are vaccinated and unvaccinated, Markland said. It’s crucial that these numbers are interpreted within the correct context to provide an accurate picture of the actual risk of death among those who received the COVID-19 vaccine and those who have not, he said.
“There's base rate fallacy meaning now…we have a population we're drawing from where being vaccinated is almost a given,†he said. “If you sample from that population, which is about 90 per cent with a single vaccine, then you're going to have a higher rate amongst those people.â€
Dr. David Carr is an emergency physician at the University Health Network in Toronto. He points out that an of Ontario’s population is either partially or fully vaccinated. aged five and older have received two doses of the vaccine, accounting for 85 per cent of the population. Four per cent are partially vaccinated and 11 per cent remain unvaccinated.
While those who are either partially or fully vaccinated are to ICUs and continue to make up a portion of COVID-19-related deaths, the risk of these severe outcomes remains higher in those who are unvaccinated, Carr said.
“There's a clear trend that you’re at about four times higher risk of ending up in an ICU, and a reasonable proportion of those will die, if you're unvaccinated,†Carr said in a phone interview with CTVNews.ca on Wednesday.
According to an released earlier this month, there were 628 deaths in Ontario among those who were at least five years old and unvaccinated between Dec. 12, 2021 and Feb. 5, 2022. Meanwhile, 1,152 residents who died of COVID-19 had at least two doses of the vaccine.
But it’s important to look at these numbers as proportions of the total number of unvaccinated people in Ontario and those vaccinated with at least two doses in order to get a true understanding of the risk of severe outcomes, said Carr. With 1,152 deaths among those vaccinated with at least two doses, out of a total of 11,963,565 fully vaccinated residents, the rate of death is about 9.6 per 100,000 for those who are fully vaccinated. However, 628 deaths among the unvaccinated, out of a total of about 1.5 million eligible residents that have yet to be vaccinated, results in a rate of about 41 deaths per 100,000 people for those not vaccinated against the virus at all.
“You can't just look at the raw data,†said Carr.
In Nova Scotia, based on the most recent regarding COVID-19-related deaths and vaccination, 72 people who died between March 2021 and Feb. 17, 2022 were vaccinated with at least two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Meanwhile, 40 deaths were among the unvaccinated. Only 10 deaths involved the partially vaccinated.
However, about 825,000 residents in Nova Scotia are vaccinated with at least two doses, while approximately 79,500 people are unvaccinated. When looking at this data proportionally, the death rate for vaccinated people with at least two doses is 8.7 per 100,000. The death rate for the unvaccinated, however, is about 50.3 per 100,000 people.
“The unvaccinated group in Nova Scotia is less than 10 per cent but it makes up about a third of the deaths,†Kelvin said. “So you can see right away that even though there's a small proportion, it's making up a very significant amount of people."
The Israeli military targeted a top Hezbollah figure in a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs on Friday, two security sources in Lebanon said, sharply escalating the year-long conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed group.
Smoke is rising over Lebanon’s capital of Beirut Friday after Israel’s military struck southern suburbs – a dramatic escalation in a year-long period of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh got into a heated exchange in the House of Commons on Thursday, just minutes after Singh announced his party would not be supporting the Conservatives' first non-confidence motion against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government.
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Ontario police say they have arrested four members of the Hells Angels Motorcycle Club (MC) and seized a number of firearms after an alleged assault and robbery in Hamilton in July.
Defence counsel for accused murderer John-Christopher Arrizza argues he was in an “altered state of mind†due to days of drug and alcohol use, sleep deprivation and not eating, when he fatally stabbed a man at a Banff nightclub in 2022.
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Driving into the tunnels of Nutrien's Rocanville mine, the largest potash mine in the world by production volume, feels like driving down a lonely highway in the middle of the night.
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Two men from Barrie have been charged after a deadly shooting at a park in Keswick on Wednesday.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Ontario Provincial Police executed a search warrant in Walkerton.
On Thursday, just after 9:30 a.m., a man was found and taken to police headquarters, where he was released with conditions and a future court date.
Standing up, speaking out, and showing solidarity — survivors and supporters gathered in the core to take back the night in Windsor. The city is just one of a growing list of communities that have declared intimate partner violence (IPV) an epidemic.
The Windsor Police Service (WPS) has seized over $56,000 in drugs and have arrested one suspect.
In a rare move, the Greater Victoria School District Board of Education has been slapped with a ministerial order from the province requiring it to update a student safety plan – drawing concern around political posturing leading up to an election.
The Union of B.C. Municipalities is asking the provincial government to make transit free for teenagers.
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The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.
Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls – including one that gave birth to 10 puppies – from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.
A Vulcan, Alta., man has been charged with a Lethbridge woman's murder after her body was found in the Oyen area.
A Lethbridge couple got a good reminder as to why you should keep your vehicle doors locked at all times.
Lethbridge residents who live near the police range can expect to hear plenty of shots fired Wednesday and Thursday.
A new community health profile in the Algoma District shows the area is significantly below provincial averages in a number of health metrics.
North Bay Police Service says one person has died following an industrial accident at the Ontario Northland Transportation Commission Rail Yard on Tuesday.
Three northern Ontario residents are charged with drug trafficking after the vehicle they were in got stuck along a bush road off Highway 17 on Monday.
Newfoundland and Labrador's chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
A 16-year-old biennial event aimed at fostering business in the country's eastern Arctic and northern regions has been cancelled indefinitely as a dispute unfolds between Inuit in Canada and a Labrador group claiming to share their heritage.
Jim Lester’s farm hopped on the cow-cuddling trend in early August, and his time slots have been pretty well sold out ever since.
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