After a bitter four-week campaign fraught with controversies and personal attacks, Jason Kenney鈥檚 United Conservative Party has unseated Rachel Notley and the NDP in Alberta鈥檚 provincial election.
The UCP win marks a return to centre-right politics for Alberta after Notley disrupted 44 years of Progressive Conservative rule with her win in 2015. It also marks the first time a government has failed to win a renewed mandate in the province on its first try.
Holding on to 24 seats, Alberta鈥檚 NDP have been relegated to opposition status while the UCP will enjoy a majority rule after winning 63 seats on Tuesday night.
Much of the campaign focused on Alberta鈥檚 struggling economy, employment, and building pipelines after global oil prices crashed in 2015 and thrust the province into a recession.
Standing before cheering supporters after his victory on Tuesday night, Kenney announced the province was now 鈥渙pen for business鈥� and vowed to stand up for Albertans.
As the premier-designate prepares to 鈥渇ight back鈥� against the federal government, here鈥檚 what the election results could mean for the rest of the country.
Thorn in Trudeau鈥檚 side
Kenney鈥檚 win in Alberta is expected to be a major headache for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after the former federal cabinet member repeatedly vowed during the campaign to challenge the federal Liberals on everything from the provincial carbon tax to how Ottawa distributes funds to the provinces for government services.
Trudeau did not directly address Kenney鈥檚 win in a speech to Liberal supporters Wednesday morning in Waterloo, Ont. Instead, the prime minister focused on the looming federal election, expected this fall.
鈥淭he choice Canadians will be facing is one about striding forward confidently into the future,鈥� Trudeau said.
David Stewart, a political sciences professor at the University of Calgary, said Kenney has made it clear that he plans to have a confrontational relationship with the federal government.
鈥淚 think they [Trudeau government] should be prepared for the end of the carbon tax, the end of any kind of cooperation on climate change with the province of Alberta, and from having any kind of ally in this part of the country,鈥� Stewart told CTV News Channel after the election results came in.
Kenney has already promised to push for a cut in federal income taxes on Albertans as well as changes to Employment Insurance to better assist those who lost their jobs during the energy recession.
The former federal cabinet minister under Prime Minister Stephen Harper has also taken aim at how federal money is redistributed to provinces. He has also threatened to hold a referendum in 2021 to remove equalization, a program that forces 鈥渉ave鈥� provinces to give money to Ottawa to distribute to 鈥渉ave not鈥� provinces.
Even Notley鈥檚 working relationship with Trudeau came under fire during the lead-up to the election, with Kenney accusing them of a 鈥淭rudeau-Notley alliance鈥� that put Ottawa鈥檚 interests ahead of the province.
鈥淜enney campaigned as much against Prime Minister Trudeau as he did against Premier Notley,鈥� Stewart said. 鈥淚 think Notley鈥檚 association with Trudeau certainly hurt her in this campaign.鈥�
For his part, Trudeau said he looked forward to working with Alberta鈥檚 premier-designate to grow the economy and create jobs.
鈥淭ogether, we will address issues of importance to Albertans and all Canadians, including... taking decisive action on climate change while getting our natural resources to market,鈥� he said in a statement.
Carbon tax
The prime minister鈥檚 plan to work with Kenney on addressing climate change may hit a roadblock early on if the premier-designate follows through on his plans to scrap the carbon tax.
Throughout his campaign, Kenney said his first order of business would be to introduce the Carbon Tax Repeal Act. The move would cancel the province鈥檚 current carbon pricing program to eventually replace it with a new system targeting large emitters of greenhouse gases.
鈥淗e鈥檚 going to cancel Alberta鈥檚 carbon tax and that obviously leaves the floor open then for the federal government鈥檚 carbon tax to apply to Alberta,鈥� Stewart said.
If Kenney鈥檚 government doesn鈥檛 come up with a new carbon levy that is satisfactory to Ottawa, the federal government will respond by imposing its own price as it has done in Ontario, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and New Brunswick.
However, Kenney has pledged to follow those other provinces鈥� lead and take the federal government to court to challenge the constitutionality of the climate change plan.
Former Saskatchewan premier Brad Wall suggested that Kenney鈥檚 landslide win could make the federal Liberals reconsider whether or not running on a carbon tax is a winning issue.
鈥淚 think this is going to be a moment of reflection and circumspection for the federal governing party,鈥� Wall told CTV News.
The Alberta premier-designate鈥檚 stance on the carbon tax means the four premiers currently against the program will have another ally in their fight against Ottawa. Kenney will join Saskatchewan鈥檚 Scott Moe, Manitoba鈥檚 Brian Pallister, New Brunswick鈥檚 Blaine Higgs, and Ontario鈥檚 Doug Ford in their opposition to the carbon pricing system.
On Tuesday, Ford welcomed news of Kenney鈥檚 victory by to his 鈥渇riend鈥� in Alberta.
鈥淥ntario has another strong partner that will fight for Canadian families against the job-killing federal carbon tax!鈥� he said.
Moe echoed that sentiment with his to Kenney on Tuesday.
鈥淭onight Alberta has chosen a free enterprise government, and Saskatchewan is pleased to have another ally at the table fighting for pipelines and standing against the disastrous Trudeau carbon tax,鈥� he said.
Pipeline politics
Trudeau won鈥檛 be the only target for the new premier-designate in Alberta. A battle is shaping up between Alberta and its neighbour to the west over the controversial Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which would allow Alberta to ship diluted bitumen to the coast of British Columbia.
B.C. Premier John Horgan鈥檚 government, along with environmentalists and Indigenous groups in the province, have consistently opposed the project, which has faced numerous delays since the federal government bought it last year in an effort to push the project through.
In response to those delays, Kenney has vowed to 鈥渢urn off the taps鈥� or cut off oil and gas shipments to B.C. if they obstruct pipeline construction. He has also said he would roll back a number of Notley鈥檚 environmental measures and go after pipeline critics.
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be a much more confrontational style of provincial government in relation to both our neighbour to the west and also to the federal government,鈥� Stewart predicted.
With files from The Canadian Press
