OTTAWA -- There will be no spring election. There can鈥檛 be a spring election. It鈥檚 ridiculous to even THINK there鈥檚 going to be an election in June with coronavirus variants spreading, the slow ramp-up of vaccines and ominous predictions of a third infectious wave on the horizon.
But there was something in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau鈥檚 eyes this week that elevated the temperature of spring election fever to plausible from the impossible.
It was his confident swagger at the speed of the vaccine rollout.
Those six million doses by the end of March coupled with India kicking in fresh supplies and new manufacturer approvals set up tens of millions of doses arriving by June. And it鈥檚 all repeatedly backed by Trudeau鈥檚 personal guarantee that any Canadian who wants a shot at symptomatic immunity gets a shot by September.
Then there was that curious tweet from former Trudeau principal sidekick and soulmate Gerald Butts, predicting the current hand-wringing over vaccine shortages 鈥渋s going to seem like a distant and transparently partisan artifact by the May 24 weekend鈥�, if not Easter.
Now Butts is an artifact of sorts himself, having been banished from the PMO inner circle exactly two years ago for his role in the SNC-Lavalin scandal.
But he crowned most of the current cabinet ministers so he retains friendships in high places. And he鈥檚 not the sort to go wildly rogue in social media crystal-ball gazing without an informed vision of what鈥檚 ahead.
Add those signs of a spring in the prime minister鈥檚 electoral step to the checklist Trudeau seems to be in a sudden rush to tick off, most of them appealing to areas of niche Liberal support.
This week鈥檚 gun control announcements were a foot-dragging second shoe to drop after assault weapons were outlawed last year, but they will be welcomed in big cities the Liberals need to hold.
This week鈥檚 policy tweak to fast-track permanent residency for immigrants living here will bolster his ethnic community credentials.
The new Canada-led coalition of countries attacking political hostage-takers like China, albeit done with a wink without actually naming China, was an overdue blast of noisy diplomacy backing our Canadian prisoners who desperately need enhanced political pressure for their freedom.
Trudeau鈥檚 pledge to pour billions of deficit dollars into rapid transit, backed by 鈥榩ermanent鈥� funding which won鈥檛 kick in until long after his prime ministerial portrait is hanging in the Commons, got a thumbs-up from metropolitan leaders.
And then there鈥檚 the looming and long-overdue budget, which offers a tempting starting line for any spring campaign.
Expect it to crank open the floodgates to crazy amounts of stimulus spending to help business recover, a fiscal rescue mission which will likely be welcomed on Bay Street and risky for opposition forces to attack.
Which brings us to the Erin O鈥橳oole factor, or lack thereof.
While the Conservative leader and prime-minister-in-waiting is eliminating some of his party鈥檚 biggest problems, specifically social conservative MP Derek Sloan, the unfortunate reality is that O鈥橳oole has simply not consummated a defining bond with voters during the traditional leadership honeymoon.
While being largely unknown means he鈥檚 not generally disliked, it鈥檚 a bit late to introduce yourself to voters once the writ is dropped, particularly if any spring vote becomes a mostly mail-in ballot following a virtual campaign.
Look, there are a hundred reasons why Justin Trudeau does not deserve easy or safe re-election. That list includes early pandemic detection and control failures, runaway deficits, his ethical lapses, broken or delayed promises, his government鈥檚 secrecy, those control freaks running his caucus and a sense he鈥檚 now well past his best-before date.
But a quick, trouble-free vaccination blitz would almost guarantee that voters roll out the red carpet to another Liberal government.
If Trudeau鈥檚 vaccination timetable becomes a reality along with the even-better-case scenario prophesized by buddy Butts, today鈥檚 vaccine delivery is just the downpayment.
There鈥檚 a mega-shipment on the way that could throttle the pandemic in Canada early - and inoculate Trudeau from defeat in a spring election.
That鈥檚 the bottom line.
