With a third minority government in four years, Canadians should expect even more political rancour and drama than they have seen leading up to Tuesday's election.
Liberal MP Bob Rae -- a frontrunner to replace embattled Liberal Leader Stephane Dion -- seemed to suggest that his party would work closely with the other opposition parties to oppose Prime Minister Stephen Harper in a Tuesday night interview with CTV News.
But Michael Ignatieff -- the other frontrunner for Dion's job -- told CTV News that talk of a coalition was "political-science fiction" and that the Liberals would oppose the Conservatives "from the centre."
Pollster Peter Donolo said that the silver lining in the Liberal defeat was that their numbers are so low, they could vote against the Conservatives without triggering an election.
"They can vote against the government without any qualm or worry about defeating the government at the wrong time," Donolo said on CTV News. "It's easier for the Liberals in a sense because they can . . . go outright for the jugular everyday in the House of Commons."
The Tories are projected to have a much stronger minority this time around, one that will require only a few votes from the opposition to maintain confidence of the House.
Keeping the Conservatives in power may fall to a coalition of Bloc Quebecois, Independents and just a few Liberal absentee votes. The Conservatives needed 155 seats to win a majority, but as of slightly after midnight, the Tories were projected to win 143 seats.
Donolo said that all three opposition parties are needed to trigger an election, and therefore, this minority could last for "quite a while."
In his victory speech, Harper called for an end of partisanship upon the return to the House and asked the other parties to work together to protect the Canadian economy.
A clearly disappointed Dion told supporters in his defeat speech that the Liberals "will do our part, responsibly, to make sure that this Parliament works"
"It is clear that our economy, indeed the global economic crisis, is the most important issue facing our country at this time."
In his concession speech, NDP Leader Jack Layton said that the Conservatives did not have a "mandate to implement an agenda without the agreement from the other parties."
One prominent political scientist said a request from Harper for another election in the coming months would likely get shot down by Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean.
University of Moncton professor Donald Savoie told The Canadian Press that Harper would have to prove to Jean that his minority government was incapable of working in the current situation.
"My sense is that she could, and probably would, turn down the prime minister, and invite the leader of the opposition to meet the House to see if his government would have the confidence of Parliament," Savoie said.
Harper called the election on the hopes of receiving that ever-elusive majority without actually losing a confidence vote in the House. Calling another election at a politically advantageous time may not fly with the public.
In a recent interview Harper said that he didn't think a minority government would last, but that it wouldn't fall right away.
Speaking to CTV's Question Period last Sunday, Harper said, "Whoever's elected, whether it's myself or Mr. Dion, that prime minister will have a mandate for a period of time to pursue their agenda. It's inevitable. The parliament isn't going to come down immediately. What I think we will see is obviously the parliament won't last four years."
The main issue for the new Parliament
The economy will undoubtedly be the primary issue in the House of Commons once MPs return.
Economists from CIBC World Markets Inc. and Bank of Nova Scotia have predicted a recession in Canada, a peril Parliament hasn't dealt with since the early 1990s.
The last two minority governments (both Martin and Harper's) had substantial surpluses used to appease the opposition come budget time, but that's unlikely in 2009.
A continued downturn in the economy could be a substantial game-change for this minority government. All parties say they oppose going into a deficit, and the government may need to raise taxes or cut spending to avoid that.
While minority governments find it easy to spend money, cutting spending will require much more political cooperation between parties.
If -- and it's a big if -- taxes need to be raised to keep the country from running a deficit, each party will find itself in a very precarious situation, deciding between fiscal prudence and the popular vote.
The Throne Speech -- the first test of the new minority government -- could be held as soon as early November. The Conservatives will survive that, but the 2009 budget vote will be very interesting.
Global Insight's Dale Orr told The Canadian Press that at the very least, the weakened economy will hurt Harper's election spending promises.
"They are going to find (next year) that their revenues are sufficiently short that they can't fit in all the spending," he said. "So they have a dilemma -- do they announce postponements in spending or do they present a budget that shows a deficit and ... Harper was so clear that he wouldn't present a deficit budget."
A change in leadership
Liberal insiders say that Harper is beatable, they just need the right leader in charge. Tuesday's election was the third in a row in which Canadians denied Harper a majority government.
Dion will be facing tough questions from his party in the coming days, and unquestionably, pressure to resign. A Liberal convention and leadership review is scheduled for early 2009.
