A new tool can help predict whether people over 65 have a high risk of developing Alzheimer's disease in the next few years.
The tool, described in the latest issue of Neurology includes several well-known risk factors for Alzheimer's disease:
- older age
- poor scores on thinking skills test
- having a gene linked to the disease, called apolipoprotein E
But other factors included in the tool predicting dementia risk might seem more surprising:
- being underweight
- not drinking alcohol
- difficulty performing physical tasks, such as buttoning a shirt
- having had coronary bypass surgery
- carotid artery thickening, as measured by ultrasound
- ventricular enlargement
- MRI findings of white matter disease
Each of the risk factors conferred one to four points of risk. Seniors who score eight points or higher on the 15-point scale are considered at high risk of developing dementia in the next six years, the tool's developers say.
Study author Deborah E. Barnes, of the University of California, San Francisco and the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center, says the new risk index could be very important both for research and for people at risk of developing dementia.
"It could be used to identify people at high risk for dementia for studies on new drugs or prevention methods. The tool could also identify people who have no signs of dementia but should be monitored closely, allowing them to begin treatment as soon as possible, and potentially helping them maintain their thinking and memory skills and quality of life longer," she said.
To develop the "late-life dementia risk index," researchers in the Cardiovascular Health Study examined 3,375 people with an average age of 76 and no evidence of dementia and followed them for six years.
During that time, 480 of the people, or 14 per cent, developed dementia. The researchers then determined which factors best predicted who would develop dementia and created the point index.
Fifty-six per cent of those with high scores on the index developed dementia, compared to 23 per cent of those with moderate scores and four percent of those with low scores. Overall, the index correctly classified 88 per cent of the participants.
"The late-life dementia risk index accurately stratified older adults into those with low, moderate, and high risk of developing dementia," the authors conclude. "This tool could be used in clinical or research settings to target prevention and intervention strategies toward high-risk individuals."
Barnes said the risk index would need to be validated with other studies, and she and her colleagues are evaluating whether a shorter, more simplified index could be as accurate as this index.
