The detentions of two Canadians in China may not be the end of worsening relations between the two countries, according to an analyst and two former diplomats.
鈥淲hile Canada-China relations have hit a low point, we may still be going lower,鈥� Scott McKnight, managing editor of the China Open Research Network at the University of Toronto said Monday on CTV鈥檚 Your Morning.
Businessman Michael Spavor and on-leave diplomat Michael Kovrig have both been detained in China in apparent retaliation for the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver.
Meng has been released from custody on bail and is awaiting a hearing on whether she will be extradited to the U.S. to face charges of fraud.
鈥淲e have to unpack what exactly the Chinese are going for. They鈥檙e looking to put as much pressure on the Canadian government as possible,鈥� McKnight said.
鈥淭he way the Chinese are interpreting this is [that] Canada has one of their own, and they want her back.鈥�
John McCallum, Canada鈥檚 ambassador to China, met with Kovrig on Friday and Spavor on Sunday.
Jeremy Kinsman, a former diplomat who served as Canada鈥檚 ambassador to Russia and the European Union among other postings, agreed with McKnight鈥檚 assessment that Canada-China relations are at risk of falling even further.
鈥淲e鈥檙e not naïve about China, but we need that relationship,鈥� he told CTV News Channel.
鈥淚t鈥檚 our second-biggest trading partner, and right now what we鈥檙e looking at is watching it go down the drain.鈥�
Kinsman said it was a positive sign that China allowed Canadian officials access to the two men within days of their detentions.
鈥淐hina鈥檚 simply accommodating its obligations. It鈥檚 doing it faster than they usually do, so that鈥檚 probably good news, but the problem remains,鈥� he said.
That problem, Kinsman said, is that the U.S. had created a 鈥渞eally inconvenient mess鈥� for Canada by arresting Meng for crimes that allegedly occurred outside either country.
鈥淲e should have gone to the United States and said 鈥楾his thing doesn鈥檛 pass the smell test,鈥欌�� he said.
鈥淚 hope, ultimately, the judge would not extradite Mrs. Meng to the United States, but we鈥檒l have to see.鈥�
Global Affairs has said little publicly about what happened during McCallum鈥檚 meetings with Kovrig and Spavor. Guy Saint-Jacques, McCallum鈥檚 predecessor as ambassador, told CTV News Channel that Chinese authorities likely wouldn鈥檛 have allowed either meeting to last much longer than 30 minutes.
According to Saint-Jacques, McCallum would likely have passed along messages from the detainees鈥� families, assessed their physical conditions and asked if their needs were being met regarding food and medicine.
鈥淭he priority is to find out as much as possible on the condition of the person,鈥� he said.
The ex-ambassador said McCallum would also be in contact with Chinese officials, likely telling them to find ways to 鈥渓ower the temperature鈥� between the two countries.
鈥淥ttawa is very serious that this could do some serious damage to the relationship,鈥� Saint-Jacques said.
Canada has traditionally had less frosty relations with China than the U.S. and some other major Western nations.
McKnight said that might have led the Canadian government to expect more support from the international community than it has received since Meng鈥檚 arrest.
鈥淯nfortunately, the response from Canada鈥檚 major partners toward China has been rather lukewarm and not quite what we expected,鈥� he said.
