ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½

Skip to main content

Conservatives maintain months-long lead over Liberals, as Canadians' economic anxiety rises: Nanos

Share

The Conservatives are solidifying their lead over the Liberals, while Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre are neck-and-neck for preferred prime minister, according to weekly tracking from Nanos Research.

The latest Nanos numbers show the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals with 33.1 per cent and 29.7 per cent respectively. The NDP are at 21.7 per cent.

It’s a narrower gap than earlier in the month, when the Conservatives reached 36.6 per cent, compared to the Liberals with 27.2 per cent. But it continues a trend of the Liberals being ensconced in second place to the Conservatives since February.

“Right now we're seeing a trend that has held up for a number of months where the Conservatives have had a noticeable advantage over the margin of error,†said , CTV News’ pollster and Nanos Research’s chief data scientist and founder.

“I think for the Liberals, they’ve got to figure out how to disrupt this trend line, because if it firms up, it's going to make for a very tough year for (them),†Nanos told CTVNews.ca.

Nanos said he chalks up the Conservative lead largely to “economic anxiety,†with more people feeling the strain of the cost of living crisis and voting on pocketbook issues.

WHAT’S CONCERNING CANADIANS?

Jobs and the economy, inflation and the cost of housing are among the top five issues of concern for Canadians, according to the latest weekly issues tracking from Nanos Research.

The top issue of concern, however, is currently the environment, which Nanos said is making him watch the polling numbers in wildfire-ravaged B.C. closely.

“What we're seeing is a focus on economic issues, meat-and-potato things, inflation, the rising cost of living, jobs and the economy, all those things are on the rise,†Nanos said.

“However, the environment as an issue has been on the rise, as many Canadians have been having to deal with extreme weather events, and also these wildfires across the country,†he added. “So think of Canadians as cross-pressured, but more pocketbook issues being top-of-mind for Canadians as they're struggling to pay for the groceries and rent.â€

BATTLEGROUND ONTARIO

The pollster said he’s also keeping a close eye on the numbers in Ontario, which he called a “big game changer for the Conservatives.â€

“The Conservatives have been much more competitive in battleground Ontario, and it's basically tipped the calculus in their balance when it comes to seat projections,†Nanos said.

He added the Prairies are “a lock†for the Conservatives, while the Liberals remain strong in Quebec, and there are several potentially close races between the two in Atlantic Canada.

Meanwhile, new numbers from Nanos also show the Liberals’ popularity plummeting among younger voters, the demographic that has largely helped Trudeau win previous elections.

The data shows the Liberals in a distant third place for 18-29 year olds with 15.97 per cent, compared to the Conservatives and the NDP with 39.21 per cent and 30.92 per cent respectively.

“I would be very concerned if I were the Liberals,†Nanos said.

He added the Liberals have to do three things to win the next election, currently slated for 2025: win back women who have pivoted their support to other parties, mobilize younger voters under one progressive banner, and be more competitive among male voters.

IN DEPTH

Opinion

opinion

opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster

A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?

opinion

opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike

When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.

CTVNews.ca ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½

The province's public security minister said he was "shocked" Thursday amid reports that a body believed to be that of a 14-year-old boy was found this week near a Hells Angels hideout near Quebec City.

An Ontario man says it is 'unfair' to pay a $1,500 insurance surcharge because his four-year-old SUV is at a higher risk of being stolen.

Local Spotlight

They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.

Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.

The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.

It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.

A Good Samaritan in New Brunswick has replaced a man's stolen bottle cart so he can continue to collect cans and bottles in his Moncton neighbourhood.

David Krumholtz, known for roles like Bernard the Elf in The Santa Clause and physicist Isidor Rabi in Oppenheimer, has spent the latter part of his summer filming horror flick Altar in Winnipeg. He says Winnipeg is the most movie-savvy town he's ever been in.

Edmontonians can count themselves lucky to ever see one tiger salamander, let alone the thousands one local woman says recently descended on her childhood home.

A daytrip to the backcountry turned into a frightening experience for a Vancouver couple this weekend.

Stay Connected