Do the Liberals still have time on their side? The signs say the opposite is happening
Exactly a year ago in P.E.I. following the Liberals' federal cabinet retreat, I wrote that ministers believed they could counter growing support for Conservatives with the passage of time.
Today, a year later, they still believe that, despite multiple indicators in the interim that the opposite is happening.
The lead that started to mount a year ago has grown and cemented. The Tories – then a handful of percentage points ahead of the Liberals – are now anywhere from 15 to 20 points ahead in the polls and have been since February. Those same polls, perhaps even more significantly, show Canadians are not thrilled with the direction the country is taking. And before you come at me and say polls are just polls, they became reality at the end of June when the Liberals suffered a shocking loss in the Toronto-St. Paul's byelection, a riding the party had held for 30 years and one even the Michael Ignatieff-led version of the party retained in 2011.
It's against that backdrop ministers gathered this week for a retreat in Halifax, their first collective public appearance since that byelection loss. Liberals acknowledged the loss was significant when it happened and promised to inform their response by listening to Canadians this summer. It appears Canadians told them to keep on keeping on.
There is no escaping that messaging, personally delivered by the prime minister to kick the retreat off and repeated often by others: Canadians want us to keep delivering for them.
Minister after minister lined up at the microphone to say just that, and publicly pronounce their support for the prime minister. Even on the policy front – new rules for temporary foreign workers (hinted at since March), tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (following U.S. and EU moves to do the same) and a working group to look at inter-provincial trade barriers and productivity – it did not exactly send the message that the loss was internalized and big change is on the way.
Part of what is informing the approach is the sense among people at the very top that the economic picture at the individual level is improving thanks to interest and inflation rates on the decline. At the outset of the retreat, Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon called it improving "economic optimism."
The bet? That as the economic well-being of Canadians improves they will see the light: the government has helped make their lives better, and is putting more on the table to make your life even better, and Pierre Poilievre will take that stuff away and goodness knows what else. Plus, Liberals will argue they're positive and he's negative.
To be clear, that IS the hypothesis on the table, and my observation is half of the ministers around the table believe it, while the other half are resigned to say they believe it, which of course isn't the same thing. "What are we supposed to do?" one of them kidded to me on the sidelines of the retreat. A few of them conveyed the recent positive vibes in the Democratic Party south of the border has helped push some ministers into believing, at the very least, voters will buy the message.
To be fair the hypothesis contains some truths: inflation rates are now back to a normal range (if grapes start costing less than $15 a bunch I too may feel optimistic about the future) and interest rates are starting to slowly come down (Canada is the first G7 country to see that happen). And while we do know what Poilievre wouldn't do (keep the carbon tax), details are scarce about what else he would roll back. Plus, his message is as far from sunny ways as you can get. All of that is true.
But the idea that lower interest rates and prices abating at a level 20 per cent higher than they were three years ago will all of a sudden prompt Canadians to take a second, wide-eyed look at the Liberals – well, that isn't a strategy – it's a hope. It hinges on many what-ifs, and doesn't take into account that some people are just tired of the prime minister, in the same way I remember being on the campaign trail in 2015 and people were tired of then-prime minister Stephen Harper. It happens.
People pass the Bank of Canada in Ottawa, July 24, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang
It's also a conscious decision not to do something else. There are a few options, ranging from pretty obvious to very obvious.
They could of course switch out their leader – "absolutely not," according to current Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who until a few weeks ago was maybe being replaced by former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.
If that's not going to happen – and not a single minister or staffer I spoke to thinks it will – the advice they're hearing from people at the retreat is to put a handful of big, bold and new things on the agenda that represent drastic change, and put the Tories in a spot where they have to articulate a position instead of just oppose. In essence, tell people why you want to stick around. Give them a reason.
Both ideas seem to have been rejected, the latter for fear of offending various special interest groups and a hesitation to believe wholesale change is actually necessary. In their place, the prime minister insists he will remain, and there's a new working group to solve a problem that existed before the Liberals came to government and was never fixed over the last nine years.
Another. Working. Group.
There's more. Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne told CTV News at the retreat his government plans to fight for Canadians and deliver, deliver, deliver. "Hope is contagious," Champagne said.
What does that mean? I have asked that question probably close to a hundred times and I don't have an answer. Maybe people aren't paying attention yet though, maybe grapes will cost $8 a bunch, maybe Poilievre will really screw up. Maybe, maybe, maybe.
The Liberals think they've got time on their side for all that to happen. Maybe they're right. What if they're not?
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½
NEW Health data collected from Indigenous Peoples in Canada has a dark history. One Indigenous company is turning that around
Software company Mustimuhw Information, which develops medical records systems built on a foundation of Indigenous traditions and values, is allowing health providers to capture data informed by cultural practices.
Hezbollah handed out pagers hours before blasts, even after checks: Reuters
Lebanon's Hezbollah was still handing its members new Gold Apollo branded pagers hours before thousands blew up this week, two security sources said, indicating the group was confident the devices were safe despite an ongoing sweep of electronic kit to identify threats.
Cognitive decline reduced by MIND diet, especially for women and Black people, study finds
Following the MIND diet for 10 years produced a small but significant decrease in the risk of developing thinking, concentration and memory problems, a new study found.
The province's public security minister said he was "shocked" Thursday amid reports that a body believed to be that of a 14-year-old boy was found this week near a Hells Angels hideout near Quebec City.
An Ontario man says it is 'unfair' to pay a $1,500 insurance surcharge because his four-year-old SUV is at a higher risk of being stolen.
Federal firearm buyback program has cost $67M, still not collecting guns after 4 years
The federal firearm buyback program has cost taxpayers nearly $67.2 million since it was announced in 2020, but it still hasn't collected a single gun.
No, these viral purple apples don't exist in Saskatchewan
If something looks too good to be true, it might be. That's the message from Saskatchewan horticulturists after customers have come into their stores hoping to buy purple apple trees this month.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police has lost 205 firearms since 2020, including machine-guns
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police has lost 205 firearms since 2020, including more than 120 handguns and at least five fully automatic weapons like machine-guns.
Influencer couple denies leaving kids alone on cruise
For most people, dinner on a cruise ship is a time to relax. But when influencer couple Abby and Matt Howard decided to kick back with a dinner à deux, they ended up kicking up a storm.
Local Spotlight
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.
A Good Samaritan in New Brunswick has replaced a man's stolen bottle cart so he can continue to collect cans and bottles in his Moncton neighbourhood.
David Krumholtz, known for roles like Bernard the Elf in The Santa Clause and physicist Isidor Rabi in Oppenheimer, has spent the latter part of his summer filming horror flick Altar in Winnipeg. He says Winnipeg is the most movie-savvy town he's ever been in.
Edmontonians can count themselves lucky to ever see one tiger salamander, let alone the thousands one local woman says recently descended on her childhood home.
A daytrip to the backcountry turned into a frightening experience for a Vancouver couple this weekend.