TORONTO -- As affordability becomes a key topic during the federal election campaign for all major parties, the news that the Canadian economy contracted in the second quarter is bad for both the Liberals and the Conservatives, according to pollster Nik Nanos.
On Tuesday, that the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1 per cent between April and June 鈥� the first quarterly contraction since the first COVID-19 wave lockdowns in 2020. To make matters worse, the agency also estimated another drop in real gross domestic product in July.
鈥淭he news yesterday that the economy had shrank would not be good for any incumbent government,鈥� Nanos said on Wednesday鈥檚 edition of CTV's Trend Line podcast. 鈥淭he last thing that you want is for the numbers to come out and to suggest that the economy is shrinking.鈥�
Nanos said the Liberals called the election when they did because they were hoping to capitalize on good will from the Canadian public for their handling of the pandemic and the supply of COVID-19 vaccines they procured while getting ahead of future concerns about the economy related to the pandemic.
鈥淭his GDP number is bad for the Liberals,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t undermines one of the key pillars that they were hoping would be in place.鈥�
This latest news also won鈥檛 help to restore Canadians鈥� faith in the economy, according to Nanos, who said the population is already feeling 鈥済rumpy鈥� about it. He said the latest weekly Bloomberg-Nanos tracking on consumer confidence shows that.
According to the data, 37 per cent of Canadians believe the economy will get stronger (down seven percentage points from four weeks earlier), while 30 per cent believe the economy will get weaker, and about 20 per cent believe there will be no change.
鈥淭he trend in terms of consumer confidence has been dropping over the last couple of weeks and couple that with a drop or shrinking of the economy and the GDP, it is basically a one-two punch in terms of creating negativity, anxiety and concern among Canadians when it comes to the economy,鈥� Nanos said.
And while the shrinking economy spells trouble for the Liberals, Nanos said the Conservatives won鈥檛 fare much better thanks to their dependence on economic growth in their platform. According to the plan, the Conservatives would be able to balance the budget without any cuts within 10 years.
However, the plan hinges on the assumption that there will be an annual GDP growth of roughly three per cent, which some economists believe is unrealistic, Nanos said.
鈥淭hese GDP numbers don鈥檛 help [Conservative Leader] Erin O鈥橳oole because if the economy is shrinking, and your fiscal plan is based on the economy growing, it鈥檚 hard to reconcile those two things, at least for average voters,鈥� Nanos said.
O鈥橳oole will need to defend his platform in order to maintain the 鈥渕ini advantage鈥� he has over Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in Nanos Research鈥檚 latest nightly tracking conducted for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, which was released on Wednesday morning.
According to the data, the Conservatives are leading with 33.7 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 31 per cent, and the NDP with 20.3 per cent. The other parties trail significantly behind with the Bloc Quebecois at 6.8 per cent, the People鈥檚 Party of Canada at 4.1 per cent, and the Greens at 3.5 per cent.
In terms of who Canadians prefer for their next prime minister, Trudeau has a slight lead with 29.2 per cent support, followed by O鈥橳oole with 28.4 per cent, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh at 19.2 per cent. PPC Leader Maxime Bernier has 4.9 per cent support, just ahead of BQ Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, and Green Leader Annamie Paul.
鈥業T鈥橲 HOUSING, STUPID鈥�
The economy, and more specifically housing affordability, is also a main topic of concern for Canadians living in the vote-rich Greater Toronto Area, Nanos said.
that was released on Tuesday, housing is the number one priority for voters living in Toronto and the surrounding area and one that all parties will have to address if they want to win votes there.
鈥淢ore than four out of every 10 residents in the GTA unprompted, which means when they could say whatever they wanted, identify housing as their as their top concern,鈥� Nanos said.
鈥淲hat was it that one American strategist said, 鈥業t's the economy, stupid鈥�?鈥� Nanos said. 鈥淭hat's probably what GTA residents want to say to any politician from any stripe, 鈥業t's housing, stupid.鈥欌��
And although Toronto and the GTA are traditionally a Liberal stronghold, Nanos said it was interesting that when residents were asked who best understands the issues in their area, it was a three-way tie between Trudeau, O鈥橳oole, and Singh.
鈥淭hat means that there's also opportunity not just for Erin O'Toole, but for Jagmeet Singh. He's got a good brand. His brand is exceptionally strong among under 35s in the in the GTA and if he can get young people to get out and vote, it can be a bit of a game changer for him,鈥� he said.
NANOS鈥� METHODOLOGY
A national random telephone survey (land- and cellular-line sample using live agents) of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three-day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing Is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2016 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
