ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½

Politics

    • Parliamentary budget officer projects considerably slower economy, declining federal deficit

    Share
    OTTAWA -

    The parliamentary budget officer is projecting the economy will slow considerably in the second half of 2022 and remain weak next year as the Bank of Canada continues to raise interest rates.

    released Thursday, budget watchdog Yves Giroux said he expects the Bank of Canada to raise its key interest rate to four per cent by the end of the year, a move which is in line with financial markets' expectations.

    Economists are anticipating an economic slowdown as higher interest rates slow spending by people and businesses.

    Since March, the Bank of Canada has raised its key interest rate from 0.25 per cent to 3.25 per cent in an effort to combat inflation. Canada's annual inflation rate was 7.0 per cent in August.

    The housing market has already begun cooling in response to higher interest rates, but the full effect of the central bank's rate hikes will take more time to work its way through the economy.

    The PBO report also projects the unemployment rate will rise to 5.8 per cent by late 2023 before falling again. That increase is moderated by decreases in the labour force participation rate as more Canadians retire.

    Statistics Canada's September job report showed the labour market was still tight, with the unemployment rate at 5.2 per cent.

    As inflation slows and heads toward the central bank's target of two per cent, the PBO expects the Bank of Canada to begin lowering interest rates toward the end of next year, bringing its key rate down to 2.5 per cent by the end of 2024.

    The outlook also estimates the federal deficit will decline to $25.8 billion, or 0.9 per cent of GDP, for the 2022-23 fiscal year.

    The deficit was $97 billion, or 3.9 per cent of GDP, during the prior fiscal year.

    Assuming no new measures are introduced and existing temporary measures expire as expected, the PBO estimates the deficit will decline further to $3.1 billion, or 0.1 per cent of GDP, by 2027-28.

    The PBO's latest deficit projection is lower than what it had forecast in March, largely due to tax revenues being higher than anticipated.

    The PBO is also projecting that by 2027-28, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio will decline from its peak in 2020-21, but still remain above pre-pandemic levels.

    The report said that as interest rates rise, the debt service ratio, which is public debt charges relative to tax revenues, will peak at 11.5 per cent in 2024-25 before declining gradually.

    The PBO said the uncertainty surrounding the report's projections is high. It outlined various risks to its forecasts, including tighter monetary policy causing a more severe economic slowdown, inflation persisting longer than expected and higher fiscal spending.

    "With the synchronized tightening of monetary policy by major central banks around the world to reduce high inflation, there is a risk of a more severe global slowdown, which would negatively affect the Canadian economy and federal finances," Giroux said.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 13, 2022.  

    IN DEPTH

    Opinion

    opinion

    opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster

    A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?

    opinion

    opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike

    When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.

    CTVNews.ca ÐÇ¿Õ´«Ã½

    The province's public security minister said he was "shocked" Thursday amid reports that a body believed to be that of a 14-year-old boy was found this week near a Hells Angels hideout near Quebec City.

    B.C.'s police watchdog is investigating the death of a woman who was shot by the RCMP after allegedly barricading herself in a room with a toddler early Thursday morning.

    Canada

    • B.C.'s police watchdog is investigating the death of a woman who was shot by the RCMP after allegedly barricading herself in a room with a toddler early Thursday morning.

    • Shamattawa RCMP are searching for a missing six-year-old boy who hasn’t been seen since Wednesday morning.

    • Friends and strangers have set up a makeshift memorial outside the home of a five-year-old boy who was found dead yesterday in Coteau-du-lac.

    • The lawyer for a B.C. RCMP officer convicted of obstruction for telling a witness to delete cellphone video following the violent 2017 arrest of Dale Culver has requested a stay of proceedings.

    • The province's public security minister said he was "shocked" Thursday amid reports that a body believed to be that of a 14-year-old boy was found this week near a Hells Angels hideout near Quebec City.

    World

    Politics

    Health

    Sci-Tech

    Entertainment

    • Lawyers representing the producers of 'Russians at War' say they may pursue legal action against Ontario's public broadcaster for pulling support for the controversial documentary amid outcry from the Ukrainian community and some Canadian politicians.

    • Viewers of Jeopardy got a chance to test their knowledge of trivia about B.C.'s biggest city Wednesday night.

    Business

    Lifestyle

    • Only one Toronto restaurant earned a Michelin star this year, but it is not a first for the chef who brought the establishment to stardom.

    • They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.

    Sports

    • Vancouver Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko says he's been working his way back from a rare lower-body muscle injury since being sidelined in last season's playoffs.

    • Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette returned to the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a right middle finger fracture.

    Autos

    • Video of a brazen daylight auto theft which shows a suspect running over a victim in a stolen luxury SUV has been released by police west of Toronto.

    • The plant was expected to produce batteries for a million electric vehicles a year. Once up and running, it was supposed to create hundreds of permanent jobs in a small southeastern Ontario municipality. But two years later, spending on the construction of the Umicore plant has been delayed in what the company calls a "significant worsening of the EV market context."

    • A Winnipeg man is asking for help after a classic car that has been a part of his family since the 1950s was stolen from his garage.

    Local Spotlight

    They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.

    Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.

    The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.

    The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.

    It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.

    A Good Samaritan in New Brunswick has replaced a man's stolen bottle cart so he can continue to collect cans and bottles in his Moncton neighbourhood.

    David Krumholtz, known for roles like Bernard the Elf in The Santa Clause and physicist Isidor Rabi in Oppenheimer, has spent the latter part of his summer filming horror flick Altar in Winnipeg. He says Winnipeg is the most movie-savvy town he's ever been in.

    Edmontonians can count themselves lucky to ever see one tiger salamander, let alone the thousands one local woman says recently descended on her childhood home.

    A daytrip to the backcountry turned into a frightening experience for a Vancouver couple this weekend.

    • B.C.'s police watchdog is investigating the death of a woman who was shot by the RCMP after allegedly barricading herself in a room with a toddler early Thursday morning.

    • Since she was a young girl growing up in Vancouver, Ginny Lam says her mom Yat Hei Law made it very clear she favoured her son William, because he was her male heir.

    • The 'Namgis First Nation says a fish farm it owns near Port McNeill shows the potential of land-based aquaculture in B.C.

    • An Ontario man says it is 'unfair' to pay a $1,500 insurance surcharge because his four-year-old SUV is at a higher risk of being stolen.

    • Toronto police say a driver who crashed into a house in the city’s west end early Friday morning has been arrested on suspicion of impaired driving.

    • Toronto police are asking for the public's help in identifying one of the suspected shooters in Tuesday's fatal double shooting in North York.

    • We've produced a special webcast edition of CTV News Calgary for Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024.

    • The Parole Board of Canada says a man who assaulted a young pregnant woman and left her for dead remains too dangerous to be released into the community.

    • A Vulcan, Alta., man has been charged with a Lethbridge woman's murder after her body was found in the Oyen area.

    • Police say a man who was taken to hospital in critical condition after being shot Thursday night has died.

    • A byelection was called for the Bay of Quinte riding less than a week after Progressive Conservative MPP Todd Smith, Ontario's education minister at the time, resigned his seat in August.

    • CTVNewsOttawa.ca looks at things to do in Ottawa and eastern Ontario this weekend.

    • Quebec Premier Francois Legault is calling on the Bloc Quebecois to topple the Trudeau government next Wednesday and trigger a federal election.

    • A harrowing video has been presented to a jury at the trial of three men facing first-degree murder charges.

    • Five bison are dead at Elk Island National Park east of Edmonton following an early Thursday morning collision.

    • An Edmonton man who is charged with sexually assaulting a teen boy is a member of the Alberta sheriffs, CTV News Edmonton has confirmed.

    • The mayor of Fort Saskatchewan apologized on Thursday for comments she made earlier this week about killing feral cats.

    • Gas prices increased in all three Maritime provinces for the first time in more than a month.

    • A section of Herring Cove Road in the Spryfield area of Halifax is closed to traffic in both directions following a single-vehicle collision Friday morning.

    • Police are asking people to avoid the Dartmouth Commons area in Dartmouth, N.S., as they assist with a wildlife call for a bear.

    • Manitobans are continuing to mop up after a deluge of rain hit southern Manitoba earlier in the week.

    • Shamattawa RCMP are searching for a missing six-year-old boy who hasn’t been seen since Wednesday morning.

    • A Winnipeg pet rescue is putting out a warning to dog owners across the city about a possible parvovirus in the province.

    • A social media post of purple apples “growing†in Saskatchewan has sparked a lot of attention. However, garden experts say there's no such thing.

    • A case involving stolen funds from a Saskatchewan business being used to purchase cryptocurrency will be heading back to the courts, thanks to a new decision by Saskatchewan's Court of Appeal.

    • Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has confirmed a tornado touched down Wednesday evening near Langbank, Sask.

    • Amber and Adam Brueckner have a pool-shaped hole in their backyard – and their wallets.

    • New details have been shared about a missing family that was last seen on Sept. 1 in Kitchener, Ont.

    • Police are trying to identify a man who approached a woman and child in Wellesley.

    • A gym teacher at a private Christian school in Saskatoon has been charged. Terra MacEwan, 44, is charged with assault with a weapon. A Saskatoon mother who spoke with CTV News says her autistic son was MacEwan's victim.

    • Thomas Hamp says he believed secret police were out to kidnap, torture, and kill him when he fatally stabbed his girlfriend Emily Sanche in February of 2022.

    • A social media post of purple apples “growing†in Saskatchewan has sparked a lot of attention. However, garden experts say there's no such thing.

    • They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.

    • As northern Ontario gets ready to welcome autumn this weekend, it’s still feeling a lot like summer as provincial forest fire crews continue to battle blazes.

    • James Bay Ontario Provincial Police have charged four commercial vehicle drivers with impaired, including one who was hauling 36,000 kilograms of ammonia hydrate.

    • Police say just before 7:00 p.m. four teens entered a business in the 1000 block of Adelaide Street North.

    • Police were focusing their attention on the northeast corner of Richmond and Horton, with members of the emergency response unit taking up positions at the scene.

    • Shedden, southwest of London, hasn’t changed much in decades – but word is spreading that hundreds of new residents could soon be calling the town home.

    • Two men from Barrie have been charged after a deadly shooting at a park in Keswick on Wednesday.

    • A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.

    • A 32-year-old man is facing charges after police say his vehicle struck a child in an Owen Sound intersection.

    • The Windsor Police Service (WPS) has seized over $56,000 in drugs and have arrested one suspect.

    • SERVEONE Canada, a global procurement solution company, has begun Canadian operations in Tecumseh.

    • Enrolment may be down at St. Clair College, but President Mike Silvaggi isn’t bothered.

    • In a rare move, the Greater Victoria School District Board of Education has been slapped with a ministerial order from the province requiring it to update a student safety plan – drawing concern around political posturing leading up to an election.

    • The Union of B.C. Municipalities is asking the provincial government to make transit free for teenagers.

    • To appreciate why Mimi Vandermolen is so pleased to notice one particular vehicle she’s walking past, you need to know that seeing this many cars in one place would have been unimaginable when she was growing-up in the post-war Netherlands.

    • A pair of runaway pigs are in the custody of an animal sanctuary in the Okanagan after evading police and volunteers for hours earlier this week.

    • The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.

    • Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls – including one that gave birth to 10 puppies – from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.

    • A Vulcan, Alta., man has been charged with a Lethbridge woman's murder after her body was found in the Oyen area.

    • A Lethbridge couple got a good reminder as to why you should keep your vehicle doors locked at all times.

    • Lethbridge residents who live near the police range can expect to hear plenty of shots fired Wednesday and Thursday.

    • A new community health profile in the Algoma District shows the area is significantly below provincial averages in a number of health metrics.

    • North Bay Police Service says one person has died following an industrial accident at the Ontario Northland Transportation Commission Rail Yard on Tuesday.

    • Three northern Ontario residents are charged with drug trafficking after the vehicle they were in got stuck along a bush road off Highway 17 on Monday.

    N.L.

    Stay Connected
    Follow CTV News