TORONTO -- The guessing game has kicked off as to who will replace Andrew Scheer as the leader of the federal Conservatives.
And although it鈥檚 extremely early and no candidates have officially put their names forward, some commentators are weighing in as to who could replace him.
Since the disappointing election results for the Conservatives, Scheer has fired several staff members and kicked off a post-mortem of the party鈥檚 showing 鈥� all amidst grumblings of insiders wanting him to step down.
Former minister of foreign affairs Peter MacKay has long been seen as a strong candidate for the role. He鈥檚 said the Conservatives' failing to defeat the Liberals on Oct. 21 "was like having a breakaway on an open net and missing the net." Before Scheer鈥檚 resignation, MacKay publicly distanced himself from rumours he was gunning for the party鈥檚 top job.
Conservative MP Erin O鈥橳oole has also been cited as a name to keep an eye out for. Widely seen as a moderate, O鈥橳oole finished third in the 2017 leadership race, but he鈥檚 not necessarily well-known across the country.
Former Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall has long been cited as a potential leader on the national level, but said two years ago that he was swearing off politics. He reiterated this stance on Friday.
MULRONEY AND RAITT OUT
Some analysts have suggested Ontario Minister of Transportation Caroline Mulroney could vie for the role, but she put out a statement saying unequivocally that she is 鈥渘ot running for leader.鈥�
Other names bandied about in Conservative ranks include Ontario MPs Pierre Poilievre and Michael Chong, as well as former Minister of International Trade Michael Fortier. But none have expressed any interest publicly.
CTV political commentator and former Conservative MP Lisa Raitt, whose name has been floated around as a possibility, has repeatedly stressed she doesn鈥檛 want the job. But for those who are interested in the role, she advises them to move quickly.
鈥淲hat we should be focusing on is moving forward 鈥� and encouraging everyone out there who鈥檝e been thinking about running that now鈥檚 your time,鈥� she told CTV News Channel. 鈥淕et your name out 鈥� because if you鈥檙e early in the race you do have a better chance of winning.鈥�
Rona Ambrose is another big name floating around. The interim leader of the Conservative Party between 2015 and 2017 has been praised for her performance during that period.
THE SOCIAL CONSERATIVE DILEMMA
Zain Velji, the former campaign manager for Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi, told CTV News Channel that for many conservatives, Scheer鈥檚 announcement 鈥渃omes as no surprise.鈥�
According to Velji, Scheer was widely seen as an 鈥渁ccidental leader in many ways,鈥� who had cobbled together a loose coalition of pragmatic Conservatives who didn鈥檛 necessarily believe in him whole-heartedly.
Many feel Scheer owed his entire leadership to social conservatives including former MP Brad Trost, who threw their support behind Scheer at the 2017 convention. But by refusing to make statements against abortion and marriage equality, Scheer was left in an untenable position when it came to retaining that support.
Still, Scheer shifted the party further to the right to appeal to social conservatives, which Velji described as 鈥渁 huge mistake鈥� that cost him urban voters in ridings in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.
Bishiop鈥檚 University political science professor Jerald Sabin said Quebec, which he called 鈥渇ertile ground鈥� for Conservatives, would need to be better spoken to by the next leader.
He said Quebecers wouldn鈥檛 be opposed to a centre or centre-right party but they would need to focus more on provincial autonomy, pipelines, environment and a green economy.
With files from The Canadian Press
