How Canada-China relations could be complicated by the U.S. election
While Canada and the United States鈥 foreign policy approaches have differed lately, when it comes to China our dealings with the Asian superpower have become intertwined on a few major files, with significant political repercussions.
During their time in office, both U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden have tried to charm China on various occasions, though are now focusing on a tough-on-China approach.
Trump鈥檚 tried to portray Biden as soft on China, while Biden鈥檚 argued he鈥檇 be tougher than Trump has been.
China is set to be a big topic of conversation in the election, given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and Americans鈥 .
But there are Canadian implications as well in how the U.S. approaches China going forward, from the U.S. extradition case against Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou and retaliatory detention of Canadians鈥 Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, to Canada鈥檚 decision whether or not to join the other Five Eyes nations in banning Huawei from its 5G network.
So, what can Canadians expect should Trump be reelected, or if American voters opt to elect Biden? CTV News.ca dug into what both candidates鈥 China policies and spoke with diplomatic and foreign policy experts about how Canada-China relations could be shifting in the months ahead.
WHERE TRUMP STANDS
Trump鈥檚 first term has included a series of decisions and declarations that have impacted Canada-China relations when it comes to its trading and cybersecurity relationships, though the main decision that continues to bind Canada to the United States was the 2018 U.S. extradition request that Canada executed to arrest Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in relation to fraud charges from the Americans.
Within days, in what鈥檚 largely been viewed as retaliation, Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor were detained by Chinese authorities in China, and they remain imprisoned to this day, facing espionage charges.
While U.S. officials have decried China鈥檚 tactics, John Bolton, the former national security adviser to Trump, has implored Canada to 鈥渂ear with鈥 the U.S. as the case unfolds, rather than give in to the chorus of prominent voices suggesting a form of prisoner swap that would see Meng released in exchange for the two Michaels.
Trump has also been bullish in regards to banning Huawei from that country鈥檚 5G program and suggesting other nations follow suit, citing the national security risks. Canada has yet to decide, but has asserted it won鈥檛 be bullied into the decision, from Trump or China, despite the potential further erosion of relations that move could cause.
Though Trump also signed a trade deal with China, it has been described by some as more of a truce over tariffs than a free trade agreement.
If Trump is reelected, Canada is 鈥済oing to be left in the same escalating kind of rhetoric,鈥 said Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, a science, society and policy senior fellow at the University of Ottawa.
Former Canadian ambassador to China Guy Saint-Jacques said that if Trump is reelected, there will be 鈥渟ignificant鈥 consequences for Canadian foreign policy, and Canada will lose room to maneuver on the world stage if it continues its current approach of not wanting to criticize or offend either Chinese President Xi Jinping or Trump.
The experts both agreed that if the Huawei decision is not taken before the November election, a Trump win would seal the deal on Canada not allowing the company into the 5G network.
WHERE BIDEN STANDS
While his 2020 platform has yet to say much about what a Biden presidency would mean for China, the former VP has stated that: 鈥淭he world is facing inescapable challenges,鈥 and names 鈥渁 rising China鈥 as one of them.
is that the next president 鈥渕ust repair our relationships with our allies and stand up to strongmen and thugs on the global stage to rally the world to meet these challenges,鈥 but doesn鈥檛 state which category he鈥檇 put China in. But during the democratic primary debates he often emphasized China鈥檚 authoritarianism.
He鈥檚 also called into question Trump鈥檚 mixed messaging on China鈥檚 handling of COVID-19, from praising their early response to the coronavirus, to blaming them for the crisis. In an called 鈥淯nprepared,鈥 Biden spells out how he would have approached the global pandemic differently.
Trump鈥檚 levelled on Biden, suggesting he鈥檚 standing up for, rather than up to, China.
鈥淚f Biden is elected there will be changes, because while there is now consensus in Washington, on both sides of the aisle among Democrats and Republicans that鈥 it's time to be tougher,鈥 said Saint-Jacques. 鈥淎nd I'm convinced that the Democrats would want to reinstitute some of the dialogues that they have had.鈥
Saint-Jacques said Biden鈥檚 past travel to China in his role as vice president would be an asset, and he鈥檇 likely look to resume that dialogue and lower the temperature of the rhetoric between China and the United States.
鈥淥verall it would be less confrontational,鈥 he said, adding that with Biden there could be an opportunity for a new approach to the two Michaels. Saint-Jacques suggested that he may be more open to negotiating an agreement for a settlement instead of pursuing the charges against Meng, which could then lead to her being returned to China and ideally Kovrig and Spavor returned to Canada.
鈥淚 think Biden will bring back that multilateralism, he'll bring back the bigger focus on things like rights, which again, Canada can be very supportive of,鈥 McCuaig-Johnston said, adding that the Democrat鈥檚 approach to China is more nuanced and similar to the one Canada has taken over the years.
THE EXPERT TAKEAWAY
Overall, the foreign policy and diplomatic experts CTVNews.ca spoke with said that there will still be a chill on China-U.S. relations under either candidate that Canada would likely feel a breeze from, and so regardless of which man is elected to lead the U.S., it鈥檚 time for Canada to reassess its foreign policy and strategy when it comes to China.
Citing the shifting Canadian views on China鈥攆rom a global force to a bully鈥擲aint-Jacques noted that going forward, Canada is going to have to keep dealing with China on a range of issues, from the COVID-19 pandemic, to climate change and Canada should rethink how we engage.
鈥淚 think for all those reasons, we have to see China as it is, and therefore, we have to change our strategy,鈥 he said.
That said, doing so would likely be easier with Biden in the White House, the experts said.
鈥淲e need a more measured approach, but one that recognizes that China has changed. We need to adjust our China policy, and it would be better to do that with the U.S. as a partner, as opposed to the U.S. being seen as an unreliable partner, because it can go off on tangents in any direction at all on a moment's notice,鈥 said McCuaig-Johnston.
