The Bank of Canada has lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 per cent.
It’s the third cut since June, and the first time the central bank has posted three consecutive reductions since the global financial crisis in 2009. Governor Tiff Macklem says if the economy continues to improve, Canadians can expect more rate cuts later this year. The next rate update is scheduled for Oct. 23.
Macklem told reporters there had been a scenario where the bank’s board discussed cutting rates by half a percentage point. “If the economy was significantly weaker, … if inflation was significantly weaker than expected, yes, it could be appropriate to take a bigger step; something bigger than 25 basis points,†said Macklem.
Macklem says the Canadian economy grew by 2.1 per cent in the second quarter of this year. The gain, led by government spending and business investment, was slightly higher than the central bank’s July forecast.
“That a healthy rebound from the near-zero growth we had in the second half of 2023,†said Macklem.
The bank’s July forecast is predicting even growth in the second half of this year and inflation is expected to ease, according to Macklem.
“We are determined to get inflation down to the two per cent target, and we want it to stay there,†said Macklem. “The economy functions well when inflation is around two per cent.â€
One of the sectors keeping inflation high is the housing sector. Macklem notes shelter accounts for twenty-five per cent of the average Canadian consumers’ spending basket.
“It's a big part of what Canadians spend, spend their money on, and it's running over eight per cent. So, it's going to be very hard to get to two per cent inflation when a quarter of your basket, a necessity, is running that high," said Macklem. "We're going to need to see some further easing.â€
A number of economists don’t believe the last two interest rate cuts helped to kickstart the housing market. Ottawa real estate broker Michael Schurter believes it will give the market a slight bump, but nothing major.
“This rate for buyers really only constitutes about $125 per month savings on a $500,000 loan if somebody is on a variable rate mortgage,†Schurter told CTV News. “Although every little bit helps, it’s not enough to move the needle too far for people.â€
Denise Freylejer has been looking for a house in the Ottawa market for a year. While the interest rate cut will help, it won’t turn her into a homeowner.
“For my situation, they’re not low enough. But it’s definitely looking into the right direction,†said Freylejer.
Canada’s employment rate remains a concern for the central bank with the unemployment rate rising to 6.4 per cent in June and staying there in July. According to Macklem, the uptick was mainly seen amongst youth and newcomers to Canada.
“Business layoffs remain moderate, but hiring has been weak,†said Macklem. He also noted that slack in the labour market is expected to slow wage growth.
Despite small declines in employment levels, Deloitte Canada’s chief economist Dawn Desjardins believes the rise in unemployment reflects increasing to our labour force.
“The labor market, we think, will hold on, so that provides that security income. And of course, with inflation pressure is easing, that too provides some relief to households as they go about their day-to-day lives,†Desjardins told CTV News.
According to the Bank of Canada, the global economy expanded by about 2.25 per cent in the second quarter of 2024. Economic growth was stronger than expected in the United States led by consumption, however the American labour market has slowed.
It’s widely expected the bank will lower the overnight target rate again at its scheduled meeting in late October.
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