Economists anticipate that Canada's annual inflation rate in August fell to its lowest level since March 2021.
Ahead of Statistics Canada's consumer price index set to be released on Tuesday, economists polled by Reuters are expecting the report to show prices rose 2.1 per cent from a year ago, down from a 2.5 per cent annual gain in July. The forecasters also anticipate inflation remained flat on a month-over-month basis.
"Unless there's something lurking out there that we're not aware of, it looks like we're headed for a pretty favourable reading," said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter.
RBC economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan said in a report last week that those expectations would put the headline inflation rate just a hair over the Bank of Canada's two per cent inflation target.
"Most of that August slowing is expected from a pullback in gasoline prices, but the (Bank of Canada's) preferred core CPI measures are also expected to trend lower, with the closely-watched three-month annualized growth rate easing from an average of 2.6 per cent in July," the RBC economists said.
The continued progress on slowing inflation comes as the central bank has signalled a willingness to speed up cuts to its key lending rate if circumstances warrant.
The Bank of Canada reduced its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point earlier this month — the third consecutive cut — to 4.25 per cent. Governor Tiff Macklem said the decision was motivated by falling inflation, noting if the CPI moving forward "was significantly weaker than we expected ... it could be appropriate to take a bigger step, something bigger than 25 basis points."
On the other hand, Macklem said if inflation is stronger than expected, the bank could slow the pace of rate cuts.
Inflation has remained below three per cent since January and fears of price growth reaccelerating have diminished as the economy has weakened.
Porter said despite progress on the inflation rate, it's still "not in a place where it's a compelling argument that the bank has to go even faster."
He forecasts the central bank will cut its key lending rate by a quarter-percentage point at every meeting until July 2025, bringing it down to 2.5 per cent by that time. That prediction also comes after data released last week that showed Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.6 per cent in August from 6.4 per cent in July.
However, Porter said it's possible the bank could speed up its rate cutting cycle if inflation continues easing.
"If we're going to be wrong, it's that we're going to get to 2.5 per cent even more quickly and possibly lower than that," said Porter.
"There is a case to be made that if the economy were to weaken further, there's little reason for the bank to keep rates in what they consider to be the neutral zone. They could go below that."
Shelter costs have remained the main driver of inflation as Canadians face high rents and mortgage payments. Porter noted that when factoring out housing costs, inflation in both Canada and U.S. is hovering slightly above one per cent.
"So really, the only thing keeping Canadian inflation above two per cent is shelter and it does look like shelter costs are probably going to fade," he said.
"It looks as if rents are starting to moderate. They're not necessarily falling, but not rising as quickly. And of course with interest rates coming down, ultimately the big kahuna here, mortgage interest costs, will recede as well."
With the U.S. Federal Reserve set to meet on Wednesday, Janzen and Fan said they expect the American central bank to announce its first rate cut in four years.
"Gradual but persistent labour market softening and slowing inflation make it clear that current high interest rates are no longer needed," they wrote.
"We think governor (Jerome) Powell’s comments will likely stay on the cautious side — hinting at future rate cuts without committing to a pre-determined path to allow for more flexibility in future decisions."
With files from Nojoud Al Mallees in Ottawa
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.
The Conservatives' first shot at toppling the Liberal government is likely doomed to fail, after Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet told reporters his MPs will vote confidence in the government.
Court documents filed in the case of a Pakistani man arrested in Quebec for an alleged plot to kill Jews in New York City reveal the RCMP didn't have enough evidence to hold him in Canada.
With all these shots, some Canadians may have questions about the benefit of each vaccine, whether they should get every shot and how often to get them, and if it's safe to get them all at once or if they should space them out.
A 14-year-old student who allegedly set her classmate on fire is facing a new charge.
Video of a brazen daylight auto theft which shows a suspect running over a victim in a stolen luxury SUV has been released by police west of Toronto.
Lebanon's health ministry said Wednesday that at least 20 people were killed and 450 others wounded by exploding electronic devices in multiple regions of the country. The explosions came a day after an apparent Israeli attack targeting pagers used by Hezbollah killed at least 12 and wounded nearly 3,000. Here are the latest updates.
The Royal Canadian Mint unveiled in Winnipeg a new toonie, which began circulating Wednesday, highlighting the 100th anniversary of the Royal Canadian Air Force.
Just one day after pagers used by hundreds of members of the militant group Hezbollah exploded, more electronic devices detonated in Lebanon Wednesday in what appeared to be a second wave of sophisticated, deadly attacks that targeted an extraordinary number of people. Here's what we know so far.
Lawyers for Sean "Diddy Combs asked a judge Wednesday to let him await his sex trafficking trial at his luxury home on an island near Miami Beach, rather than a grim federal jail in Brooklyn.
A B.C couple has been ordered to stop living in a motorhome on the property where their under-construction home – which they were first given a permit to build more than six years ago – has become an “eyesore,†according to a recent court decision.
Court documents filed in the case of a Pakistani man arrested in Quebec for an alleged plot to kill Jews in New York City reveal the RCMP didn't have enough evidence to hold him in Canada.
A 29-year-old Quebec woman is facing a first-degree murder charge in the death of a five-year-old boy southwest of Montreal.
A 14-year-old student who allegedly set her classmate on fire is facing a new charge.
The Royal Canadian Mint unveiled in Winnipeg a new toonie, which began circulating Wednesday, highlighting the 100th anniversary of the Royal Canadian Air Force.
Video of a brazen daylight auto theft which shows a suspect running over a victim in a stolen luxury SUV has been released by police west of Toronto.
Harvey Weinstein pleaded not guilty to committing a criminal sexual act on Wednesday, nearly five months after the disgraced Hollywood movie mogul's sex crimes conviction in New York was overturned.
Lawyers for Sean "Diddy Combs asked a judge Wednesday to let him await his sex trafficking trial at his luxury home on an island near Miami Beach, rather than a grim federal jail in Brooklyn.
Brian Jeffrey Raymond, with a greying beard and orange prison jumpsuit, sat dejectedly as he heard his punishment for one of the most egregious misconduct cases in the CIA’s history.
Atlantic City Mayor Marty Small Sr. and his wife, La'Quetta, the city's superintendent of schools, have been indicted on child endangerment and other charges for allegedly beating their teenage daughter on numerous occasions, prosecutors said Wednesday.
Lebanon's health ministry said Wednesday that at least 20 people were killed and 450 others wounded by exploding electronic devices in multiple regions of the country. The explosions came a day after an apparent Israeli attack targeting pagers used by Hezbollah killed at least 12 and wounded nearly 3,000. Here are the latest updates.
Just one day after pagers used by hundreds of members of the militant group Hezbollah exploded, more electronic devices detonated in Lebanon Wednesday in what appeared to be a second wave of sophisticated, deadly attacks that targeted an extraordinary number of people. Here's what we know so far.
The Conservatives' first shot at toppling the Liberal government is likely doomed to fail, after Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet told reporters his MPs will vote confidence in the government.
Two Liberal ministers are accusing Conservatives of lending their support to protesters who harassed Jagmeet Singh, among others, outside of Parliament Hill this week.
New federal legislation introduced Wednesday aims to give Jasper full authority over local land planning and development rather than Parks Canada.
With all these shots, some Canadians may have questions about the benefit of each vaccine, whether they should get every shot and how often to get them, and if it's safe to get them all at once or if they should space them out.
With its line-up of sweet snacks, Hershey isn’t known as a purveyor of diet foods. However, the company’s newest products are made specifically for those on a fitness kick.
More people who have never touched a cigarette are getting lung cancer, but there are ways to prevent it, according to a doctor.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
Ontario Provincial Police are warning social media users about recent scams.
Australian police said Wednesday they have infiltrated Ghost, an encrypted global communications app developed for criminals, leading to dozens of arrests.
Lawyers for Sean "Diddy Combs asked a judge Wednesday to let him await his sex trafficking trial at his luxury home on an island near Miami Beach, rather than a grim federal jail in Brooklyn.
MrBeast is accused of creating 'unsafe' employment conditions, including sexual harassment, and misrepresenting contestants' odds at winning his new Amazon reality show's US$5 million grand prize in a lawsuit filed Tuesday by five unnamed participants.
In 2011, a young Taylor Swift said she was not inspired to sing about topics related to politics. Over a decade later, she's singing a different tune.
Low entry-level pay in the tentative deal between Air Canada and its pilots could be a stumbling block ahead of a union vote on the agreement, some aviators and experts say.
Some Brazilian users reconnected with X on Wednesday despite the Supreme Court's recent nationwide ban, the result of the social network apparently changing the way its servers are accessed. The reunion may be short-lived, however.
A report led by the Canada Research Chair in Urban Governance says restrictions on short-term rentals in British Columbia have reduced rents by 5.7 per cent, saving tenants more than $600 million last year
Buying a historic cruise ship he found on Craigslist back in 2008 was undoubtedly a life-altering decision for Chris Willson. In October 2023, Willson made the painful decision to sell the vessel, which began sinking around seven months later. Now its future looks bleak.
Two lucky people in Ontario and Quebec will split Tuesday’s record-breaking $80-million Lotto Max jackpot.
The Michelin Guide's famous inspectors have ventured outside Toronto's city limits.
Matthew Tkachuk estimated that he tells a story about Johnny Gaudreau's exploits, both the on-ice and off-ice variety, to somebody at least once a week.
Las Vegas Aces superstar A’ja Wilson and Indiana Fever rookie Caitlin Clark both broke WNBA records Sunday, with Wilson becoming the first player to score 1,000 points in a single season and Clark breaking the rookie scoring record.
Vancouver Canucks forward Dakota Joshua revealed Tuesday he underwent cancer treatment over the summer, and will not be ready to play when the team's training camp begins later this week.
Video of a brazen daylight auto theft which shows a suspect running over a victim in a stolen luxury SUV has been released by police west of Toronto.
The plant was expected to produce batteries for a million electric vehicles a year. Once up and running, it was supposed to create hundreds of permanent jobs in a small southeastern Ontario municipality. But two years later, spending on the construction of the Umicore plant has been delayed in what the company calls a "significant worsening of the EV market context."
A Winnipeg man is asking for help after a classic car that has been a part of his family since the 1950s was stolen from his garage.
An ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey named Goliath is missing from its longtime home at a veterinary hospital south of Calgary.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.
A Good Samaritan in New Brunswick has replaced a man's stolen bottle cart so he can continue to collect cans and bottles in his Moncton neighbourhood.
David Krumholtz, known for roles like Bernard the Elf in The Santa Clause and physicist Isidor Rabi in Oppenheimer, has spent the latter part of his summer filming horror flick Altar in Winnipeg. He says Winnipeg is the most movie-savvy town he's ever been in.
Edmontonians can count themselves lucky to ever see one tiger salamander, let alone the thousands one local woman says recently descended on her childhood home.
A daytrip to the backcountry turned into a frightening experience for a Vancouver couple this weekend.
If you take a look to the right of Hilda Duddridge’s 100th birthday cake, you’ll see a sculpture of a smiling girl extending her arms forward.
Two sisters have finally been reunited with a plane their father built 90 years ago, that is also considered an important part of Canadian aviation history.
British Columbia's police oversight agency says there are no grounds for criminal charges against four Mounties after a man's arm was broken during an arrest on Vancouver Island.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
Police in Vancouver are investigating an unusual situation that injured a car-share driver in the Kitsilano neighbourhood Tuesday night.
Two people are dead following an early-morning shooting at a park in a quiet neighbourhood in Keswick, York Regional Police say. Police confirmed just before 11 a.m. that they were investigating a double homicide at Bayview Park. YRP said they responded to the sounds of gunshots at the park just before 7:30 a.m.
Rogers Communications Inc. is buying out Bell's 37.5 per cent share of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment for $4.7 billion, giving it 75 per cent ownership of the sports conglomerate.
Video of a brazen daylight auto theft which shows a suspect running over a victim in a stolen luxury SUV has been released by police west of Toronto.
A heavy police presence could be seen at a property in the southeast Calgary community of Valleyfield on Wednesday.
A Calgary man has been charged with sexual assault and sexual interference in relation to an incident with a 12-year-old child that took place in the southeast Calgary community of Walden.
Alberta's transportation minister says the City of Calgary's decision to wind down the Green Line LRT project is "unfortunate†— but he isn’t completely closing the door on the transit initiative.
Photographs of eyeglasses with an apparent broken arm, a purse with a "severed" strap and a reusable bag filled with groceries at the bottom of a staircase were among those shown to the jury at the first-degree murder trial of Hamid Ayoub Wednesday morning.
A search is underway in the Ottawa River for a 30-year-old woman reported missing while kayaking near Pembroke, Ont.
Ottawa City Council has voted to maintain O-Train Line 1 service at current levels to give OC Transpo additional time to study ridership patterns this fall.
A 29-year-old Quebec woman is facing a first-degree murder charge in the death of a five-year-old boy southwest of Montreal.
Thanks to a generous donation, the Montreal Children’s Hospital will now be able to double the number of cancer trials it offers to young patients.
For the first time in nine months, Christian Boivin and his family say they're encouraged that Montreal police arrested four people suspected of selling the kind of drugs that killed their 15 year-old son, Mathis Boivin, last year.
A 52-year-old man is facing sexual assault charges in connection with the assault of a teen boy.
A man wanted in connection with the death of his partner has been arrested.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's plan to spend billions of dollars to fast-track school building across the province will come with a new program to fund private school construction.
Transport Canada has ordered a bankrupt tidal power company and a bankruptcy trustee to produce a plan to remove four huge moorings abandoned in the water near Walton, N.S.
A Woods Harbour, N.S., man is facing dozens of charges after police seized weapons and drugs from South Shore homes last Friday.
A streak of sunny and hot mid-September weather set new high temperatures records in the Maritimes.
More than $300,000 worth of stolen vehicles were seized from a Winnipeg compound earlier this month, police announced Wednesday.
Manitobans are getting another reminder of how long wait times are for diagnostic images.
Southern Manitoba was hit with torrential downpours, overland flooding and thunderstorms at the start of the week, with some communities receiving upwards of 200 millimetres (mm) of rain.
Alena Marie Pestuch has plead guilty to charges in relation to the theft of over $4 million in an investment scheme beginning in 2006.
The Government of Saskatchewan has said it will not accept asylum seekers under a recent federal proposal to relocate them across Canada.
Fraudulent phone calls targeting older people are circulating the Pilot Butte, Sask. area, RCMP said.
Police are hoping the public can help them locate three missing people from Kitchener.
A new project at a Kitchener, Ont. school is giving staff and students hope it will lead to a cleaner - and brighter - future
Two people have been arrested, and three others are still at large in connection with a door-to-door sales fraud that police said victimized more than 200 people across Ontario.
May 9, 2022 was the day Blayne McKay thought he was going to die. He called his wife to say goodbye, after getting electrocuted at the SaskPower Island Falls Hydroelectric Station, about 100 kilometres northwest of Flin Flon.
A 14-year-old student who allegedly set her classmate on fire is facing a new charge.
Catherine Sanche says her cousin and best friend Emily Sanche never feared her boyfriend Thomas Hamp would hurt her in the weeks leading up to her death in February 2022.
A detour is now available after Highway 101 closed in both directions between Foleyet and Highway 144, police said Wednesday.
North Bay Police Service says one person has died following an industrial accident at the Ontario Northland Transportation Commission Rail Yard on Tuesday.
Security video shows a man breaking into a thrift store operated by a Sudbury animal rescue and stealing items from a jewelry case Tuesday morning.
Fanshawe College is being sued over supposed deficiencies in its paralegal program. A proposed class action seeks $10 million in damages on behalf of hundreds of students enrolled in the college's paralegal program since 2020.
Around 1:00 p.m. on Tuesday, September 10, OPP, EMS, and local fire services were called to the scene of a two-vehicle collision on Egremont Road in Warwick Township.
Neil Lumsden has signed his organ donor card for decades, so the decision to do his part for concussion research was a no-brainer.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Check your lottery tickets because someone who purchased a ticket in Grey County is an overnight multi-millionaire, having won half of the historic lottery jackpot.
York Regional Police say two people are dead after a shooting at a park in the community of Keswick.
Local high school students have been granted a unique opportunity through their enhanced construction program.
The heat and dryness is making September feel like the dog days of summer.
Windsor police are asking for the public’s help to identify two suspects involved in a $64,000 bank fraud investigation.
British Columbia's police oversight agency says there are no grounds for criminal charges against four Mounties after a man's arm was broken during an arrest on Vancouver Island.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
British Columbia Health Minister Adrian Dix says minimum nurse-to-patient ratios meant to improve care and strengthen the health-care system have now been established for most hospital settings.
Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls – including one that gave birth to 10 puppies – from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.
More than a year after a missing Kamloops, B.C., woman’s body was found, her son has been arrested and charged with her murder, Mounties announced Friday.
A woman suffered life-threatening injuries after being stabbed during a home invasion in Kelowna, according to authorities.
Lethbridge residents who live near the police range can expect to hear plenty of shots fired Wednesday and Thursday.
The City of Lethbridge's encampment response team continues to see a rise in the number of people experiencing homelessness throughout the summer months.
Two 16-year-old boys have been charged with arson following a fire at a Lethbridge building earlier this month.
North Bay Police Service says one person has died following an industrial accident at the Ontario Northland Transportation Commission Rail Yard on Tuesday.
Three northern Ontario residents are charged with drug trafficking after the vehicle they were in got stuck along a bush road off Highway 17 on Monday.
A 50-year-old man in the Sault has been charged following an assault on Saturday that involved the use of a hammer.
Newfoundland and Labrador's chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
A 16-year-old biennial event aimed at fostering business in the country's eastern Arctic and northern regions has been cancelled indefinitely as a dispute unfolds between Inuit in Canada and a Labrador group claiming to share their heritage.
Jim Lester’s farm hopped on the cow-cuddling trend in early August, and his time slots have been pretty well sold out ever since.
The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at CTV News. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop. Read about us.
