Days after winning the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership race in March, Doug Ford was asked why he insisted on framing his opponents as elites. Ford is a wealthy man who inherited a company from his politician father. Isn鈥檛 he also an elite?
Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford greets supporters at a rally in Toronto on Monday, March 19, 2018. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young)
鈥淚t has nothing to do with money,鈥 Ford told Ontario鈥檚 public broadcaster, TVO. 鈥淚 know people with half a billion, a billion dollars who will grab a shovel and start diggin鈥 a ditch. The elites, they think they鈥檙e smarter than you. They look down at you like you鈥檙e some sort of Neanderthal 鈥 They stick their nose up at you and when they drink their champagne and have their little pinky up in the air.鈥
Unlike elites, Ford drinks milk straight from the container, he said.
For anyone who lived through the world-famous mayoral term of Doug鈥檚 younger brother, Rob Ford -- an era when Doug served not only as a city councillor but also as de facto co-mayor -- the comment would have sounded familiar.
The Ford family has built a strong brand by drawing a distinction between the people they label as fat cat, gravy-train riding elites (read: other politicians) and those regular folks who drink straight from the carton and are suspicious about how their tax dollars are being spent.
Rob Ford (left) speaks to his brother Doug Ford at city hall in Toronto on Thursday, Jan. 30, 2014. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young)
In an election in which it appears Ontarians are sick of the incumbents -- the Liberals have been in power 15 years, and poll after poll finds the majority of voters want change -- Ford鈥檚 populist message appears to be resonating.
鈥淔ord just embodies anti-eliteness in everything he does,鈥 says University of Toronto politics professor Chris Cochrane.
鈥淧eople point to his wealth and his background to say he鈥檚 a false prophet of populism, but when he speaks you can tell he鈥檚 not cut from the same cloth as a typical politician, and that鈥檚 a huge advantage at a time when people are frustrated with government,鈥 he says.
Carleton University鈥檚 Paul Thomas agrees. 鈥淗e鈥檚 the kind of candidate who fits well with the general assessment of what the Liberals have done wrong, which is that they鈥檙e a high-tax kind of government, bringing in the carbon levy and not good guardians of the public purse,鈥 he says.
The trick for Ford, they say, will be to sell that anti-elite message without making the types of mistakes that took down two previous PC leaders.
For former PC leader John Tory, the mistake made was taking a position on a divisive social issue by promising to fund non-Catholic religious schools, they say.
For Tory鈥檚 successor, Tim Hudak, the major stumble was spooking voters by vowing to cut 100,000 public sector jobs, according to Cochrane and Thomas.
Focus on efficiencies, not cuts
Thomas and Cochrane say Ford seems to understand he can鈥檛 be seen as a threat to public services.
They point to how he answered when asked about cuts at a debate in March.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe we need to cut any jobs, I don鈥檛 believe in taking food off people鈥檚 table,鈥 Ford said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to find efficiencies 鈥 and that鈥檚 how we鈥檙e going to save the money, just like we did in the City of Toronto.鈥
When Ford spoke to CTV鈥檚 Power Play in March, he repeated the assertion that he could find major 鈥渆fficiencies,鈥 claiming he and Rob managed to cut a billion dollars from Toronto鈥檚 city budget "and not one single person was laid off."
Ford gave supervisors 鈥渨ho report into 12 other supervisors,鈥 as an example of a possible efficiency.
鈥淚n the private sector, a supervisor will look after probably 15 people roughly, so when these supervisors all decide to retire, through attrition, we just aren鈥檛 going to replace them,鈥 he said.
Thomas and Cochrane say the billion dollar claim isn鈥檛 backed up by reality. when he ran against Tory for Mayor of Toronto in 2014 but the numbers never added up. Ford pointed to things like privatizing some garbage collection as saving $80 million, but the city said at the time that privatization
Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford poses with supporters in Oshawa, Ont., on Saturday, March 24, 2018. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young)
Ford also claimed that cutting the $60 annual vehicle registration fee saved taxpayers 鈥$200 million.鈥 That may have been a savings for taxpayers, but it wasn鈥檛 an 鈥渆fficiency,鈥 so much as a giant hole in the budget.
Economists have suggested Ford won鈥檛 be able to pay for some of his spending promises, like child care rebates of up to $6,750 per family and care over a decade, if he also follows through on his vows to scrap the cap-and-trade program and cut corporate taxes--
But that might not matter, considering how the Liberals have managed the books. Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk of 鈥渄ramatically understating鈥 the size of the deficit and Moody鈥檚 downgraded Ontario鈥檚 finances from 鈥渟table鈥 to 鈥渘egative鈥 in April.
Besides, Ford appears to have found an economic message that could resonate. Like U.S. President Donald Trump, he argues he can spur growth in manufacturing by reducing taxes and regulations.
鈥淵ou see what鈥檚 happening south of the border,鈥 Ford told host CTV鈥檚 Your Morning in March.
鈥淵ou see what鈥檚 happening south of the border,鈥 Ford told host CTV鈥檚 Your Morning in March. 鈥淭hey have trillions of dollars coming in, the lowest unemployment we鈥檝e seen in 20 years, and they have manufacturing jobs flowing back into the country. Up in Ontario, you have more red tape, more rules, more regulations 鈥 the carbon tax ... the highest hydro rates 鈥 some of the highest property taxes, and then you鈥檙e supposed to compete?鈥
He offered a similar assessment to a crowd in Markham, Ont. 鈥淥ntario was once the economic engine of this country, among the greatest manufacturing economies. Ontario cars, manufactured goods ... were found in every single store in North America ... The engine of our country under the Liberals is now a have-not province.鈥
Ford has repeatedly said he plans on putting a 鈥渂ig neon sign鈥 on the Canada-U.S. border that says 鈥淥ntario is open for business.鈥 It鈥檚 the type of symbol -- like Trump鈥檚 wall on the Mexican border -- that could stick in voters鈥 minds.
Steering clear of social conservatism
Cochrane and Thomas say the jury is still out on whether Ford will be able to avoid taking sides on divisive social issues.
Ford did manage to avoid Tory鈥檚 fatal pitfall when he was asked on Power Play whether he would get rid of the parallel Catholic and non-Catholic public school systems.
Ford simply reframed the issue around -- what else -- efficiencies. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e two separate school boards so we鈥檝e got to respect that, but we have to share the synergies and make sure on the procurement side that we drive the efficiencies,鈥 he said. 鈥淲hat drives me nuts is you have two Taj Mahals, one separate school board and one right beside it.鈥
On social issues, both Cochrane and Thomas say that key ally in the leadership race, Tanya Granic Allen, could push things off the rails.
Granic Allen, who is is the social conservative activist who placed fourth in the provincial PC Party leadership race, but whose voters overwhelmingly ranked Ford second on the ballot, helping him to squeak past challenger Christine Elliott.
later took credit for Ford鈥檚 win, saying they had helped Granic Allen sign up 9,000 members and told them to make Ford their second choice.
Part of what appeals to anti-abortion activists is Ford鈥檚 position that children under 18 should be required to get parental consent for abortions.
Tanya Granic Allen participates in a debate in Ottawa on Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2018. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang)
Thomas says it鈥檚 common for right-leaning politicians to court social conservatives with positions like that in order to win leadership races, but they can hinder them in general elections.
One social issue that鈥檚 especially fraught for the PCs is the sexual education curriculum update overseen by the Wynne Liberals. Granic Allen famously declared in a PC leadership debate that children in elementary school are learning about anal sex when they should be learning math.
Cochrane says it was a 鈥減reposterous" claim considering what鈥檚 actually in the curriculum, and repeating it could make the PCs look like liars, or like they鈥檙e attacking LGBT people.
鈥淒iplomacy isn鈥檛 (Granic Allen鈥檚) strong suit and subtlety isn鈥檛 her strong suit, so if she鈥檚 the voice of the party on the sex ed curriculum, I think that will be much to their detriment,鈥 Cochrane says.
鈥淏ut if Ford plays it pretty tight to the chest, sticks to simple messages and doesn鈥檛 get caught up in anything like school sex ed curriculum, he has a very good chance in this election.鈥
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鈥 How Andrea Horwath could win the Ontario election
